A recent opinion poll by the survey agency Matrize, aired by Times Now on Friday, has said no single party at this point is heading for an outright majority in Haryana, Jharkhand, or Maharashtra if elections were held today. In Maharashtra, with 288 Assembly seats, it is the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition that will have a slight edge though, at its heels, is expected the Maha Vikas Aghadi.
The seat projection in Maharashtra was 95-105 for the BJP. Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena was projected to garner 19-24 seats, Ajit Pawar-led NCP 7-12.
The Congress is projected to win between 42 and 47 seats, with the Shiv Sena-UBT (Uddhav Thackeray faction) expected to secure 26 to 31 seats. The Sharad Pawar-led NCP-SP is forecasted to obtain 23 to 28 seats, while other parties and independents are predicted to win 11 to 16 seats.
The Matrize survey's vote share projections show the following distribution: BJP at 25.8%, Shiv Sena at 14.2%, Ajit Pawar-led NCP at 5.2%, Congress at 18.6%, Shiv Sena-UBT at 17.6%, Sharad Pawar-led NCP at 6.2%, and others at 12.4%. Eknath Shinde emerges as the leading choice for Chief Minister, with 27% of respondents favoring him. Uddhav Thackeray follows with 23%, Devendra Fadnavis with 21%, and Sharad Pawar with 9%. The remaining 20% of respondents support other candidates.
In Haryana, where there are 90 Assembly seats, the election is expected to be highly competitive. The BJP-led coalition is forecasted to win between 37 and 42 seats, while the Congress is projected to secure 33 to 38 seats. The JJP is expected to gain 3 to 8 seats, with other parties likely to win 7 to 12 seats. No single party is predicted to achieve a majority on its own, but the BJP has a slight advantage.
In Jharkhand, with 81 Assembly seats, the seat projections are as follows: JMM is expected to win 19 to 24 seats, Congress 7 to 12 seats, BJP 38 to 43 seats, AJSUP 2 to 7 seats, and others 3 to 8 seats. The BJP is approaching the majority mark of 42 seats.
Regarding Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini's performance, the poll indicates: 40% of respondents rate it as Very Good, 21% as Average, 24% as Not Good, and 15% are unsure. The projected vote share in Haryana is: BJP+ at 35.2%, INC at 31.6%, JJP at 12.4%, and Others at 20.8%.
On the electoral impact of the Jat vs Non-Jat issue, 38% of respondents believe it will have an effect, 43% think it won’t, and 19% are undecided. Additionally, 56% of voters do not support Rahul Gandhi’s call to abolish the Agnipath Scheme, with 29% in favor and 15% unsure.
Regarding the pre-poll announcement of a Chief Ministerial candidate's impact on Congress and allies in Haryana, 35% believe it would have a negative impact, 30% a positive impact, 24% see no impact, and 11% are unsure.
In Jharkhand, the preferred Chief Ministerial candidates are led by Babulal Marandi with 41%, followed by CM Hemant Soren at 32%. Arjun Munda garners 9%, Champai Soren 5%, and others account for 13%.
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