The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are crucial for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ruling party is facing anti-incumbency due to the rising prices of every essential commodity, growing unemployment, unresolved farmers' issues and non-fulfilment of old election promises, such as Rs 15 lakh in the bank account of every individual, two crore jobs per year, 'Achche Din', and others, say analysts.
The BJP has managed to gain political ground in states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Haryana on the basis of Hindutva and the politics of breaking the government. Maharashtra is an example of breaking the government. However, the BJP also lost power in a similar way when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar used the same tactic in August last year and forced the saffron party out of power in Bihar.
The BJP think tank believes that a caste census will give an edge to Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar. Hence, it is trying every possible way to enter into the caste combination of the JD-U and the RJD and create divisions in their core voters.
The JD-U has its core voters among the Kurmis and the Koiris (Kushwaha) in Bihar. People of these two castes are financially very sound thanks to the government of Nitish Kumar for the last 17 years. They are loyal to Nitish Kumar. The recent rebellious moves of Upendra Kushwaha could be an attempt by the saffron party to create confusion in the Kurmi vote bank. Upendra Kushwaha openly denied the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav and asked Nitish Kumar to avoid promoting him.
"The statement of Upendra Kushwaha to CM Nitish Kumar not to promote Tejashwi Yadav for the 2025 assembly poll was a clear indication that he is talking the language of the BJP. Uncle and nephew are united and going strong in Bihar and BJP wants to create differences among them. The BJP actually wants to deceive the voters of the Koiri community through Upendra Kushwaha and hurt the vote bank of the JD-U," said Mritunjay Tiwari, national spokesperson of the RJD.
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Upendra Kushwaha has said that the JD-U is weakening in Bihar after the formation of the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) government. Moreover, promoting Tejashwi Yadav by CM Nitish Kumar for the 2025 assembly poll is sending a wrong message to the Kurmi and Koiri voters who believe that once Tejashwi Yadav becomes the chief minister of Bihar, Yadavs and Muslims will become the dominant groups.
Reacting to Upendra Kushwaha's statement, Nitish Kumar on Friday without taking his name said: "He used to give statements against me in the media every day and I learned through newspapers. What is the meaning of his statement? I believe he has an alignment with others (BJP) and hence he is talking its language. He is free to say anything, we do not care."
"Kurmi and Koiri voters have been anti Yadav in Bihar for years. It is true that Kurmi and Koiri give their votes in the name of Nitish Kumar. Similarly, Yadav voters give their votes in the name of Lalu Prasad Yadav and now Tejashwi Yadav. Now, Nitish Kumar is promoting Tejashwi Yadav for the 2025 assembly election," RJD vice president Shivanand Tiwari told IANS.
"Mahagathbandhan alliance partners have announced the Purnea rally on February 25 where leaders of all 7 parties including Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav will be present. It will be interesting to see how Kurmi-Koiri voters would share the same space with Muslims and Yadavs. The success of the Purnea rally will give a strong message to the BJP in Bihar," Tiwari said.
"The Upendra Kushwaha episode may create confusion in the Koiri caste but we have to see how he is capable of taking away the voters from Nitish Kumar. The relevance of leaders like Upendra Kushwaha will be tested only when he is capable of individually taking away the majority of voters of his caste and form the government with the BJP. I am not sure if he is popular enough in his caste. If we analyze, a number of Kushwaha leaders are present in every party and they are popular in their respective constituencies. Upendra Kushwaha may create uncertainty in the mind of some voters of his caste but not all," Tiwari said.
Nitish Kumar has the sharpest political brain in the country. He finds out the "Jaichands" within his party and picks them out. Upendra Kushwaha and RCP Singh are examples of it, he said.
Nitish Kumar is currently doing the Samadhan Yatra in Bihar and making every possible effort to attract the EBC vote bank. The EBC voters play a crucial role in deciding the fate of political parties in Bihar. They have an estimated strength of 23% percent in Bihar. Hence, the role of leaders like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahani becomes more important. Manjhi represented the Mahadalit community while Mukesh Sahani called himself the "Son of Mallah" (Fisherman). These two are loyal to Nitish Kumar, he added.
For the RJD, Tejashwi Yadav wants to transform his party's image of Muslim-Yadav to A to Z to lure voters from the upper castes. The RJD under Tejashwi Yadav conducted special events for the Rajput and Bhumihar castes. He gave portfolios to Kartikeya and Sudhakar Singh soon after the formation of the Mahagathbandhan government. They belong to the Bhumihar and Rajput castes respectively. Jagadanand Singh is also a Rajput and the state president of the party.
