One year before the highly anticipated 2024 election, President Biden finds himself facing an uphill battle against former president Donald Trump.
In five out of the six crucial battleground states, President Biden lags behind his potential Republican adversary, Donald Trump, according to a new poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.
The primary factors contributing to President Biden’s decline in support include concerns about his age, dissatisfaction with his economic policies, and a range of other pressing issues.
The poll results are striking, with Biden trailing Trump, his most probable Republican opponent, by margins ranging from three to ten percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The only silver lining for the President is Wisconsin, where he maintains a modest two-point lead over Trump.
Across the six pivotal battleground states, all of which swung in Biden's favor in 2020, the president averages a 44% approval rating, while Trump secures a 48% approval rating. This discontent is palpable, with a majority of voters saying that Biden's policies have negatively affected them. Furthermore, the survey highlights the erosion of the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that propelled Biden to victory in 2020. Groups that had overwhelmingly supported Biden are now fiercely contested, reflecting a growing sentiment that the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
The poll shows that Biden's support among voters under 30 is a mere single percentage point, and his lead among Hispanic voters has dwindled to single digits. His advantage in urban areas is now only half of Trump's lead in rural regions, and men favour Trump by twice the margin that women support Biden, reversing the gender advantage that had previously bolstered Democratic gains.
In a surprising twist, Black voters, traditionally a strong Democratic constituency and a cornerstone of Biden's support, are now showing a significant 22% level of support for Trump in these battleground states—a remarkable shift in modern presidential politics.
When all these factors are combined, Trump holds a substantial lead, with a 10-point advantage in Nevada, a 6-point lead in Georgia, and 5-point leads in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden's only saving grace is his slim 2-point edge in Wisconsin. Notably, the polling data also suggests a subtle racial realignment between the two major parties, as Biden fares best in the least diverse of the six battleground states.
For many voters, both Biden and Trump share the distinction of being deeply and similarly unpopular according to the poll. However, voters who overwhelmingly believe the nation is on the wrong track appear to be directing their frustrations primarily at President Biden, according to the poll, casting a shadow over his prospects for the upcoming election.
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