The race for the 2028 presidential election is gaining attention, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis emerging as front-runners, despite the current year being 2024. Both candidates face a challenging contest against the formidable presence of Donald Trump within the Republican Party. RealClear Politics (RCP) national polls show Trump leading at 66.1%, with Haley trailing at 11.5% and DeSantis at 10.5%.
While the current intraparty elections serve as a test for the Republican presidential nomination, the Super Thursday on March 5, when 15 states hold internal elections, is considered a crucial deadline for Haley and DeSantis to assess their chances against Trump. Trump's dominance was evident in Iowa, where he secured 51% of the votes, compared to 21.2% for DeSantis and 19.1% for Haley.
The spending patterns in Iowa, with Trump leading at $67 million, followed by $37 million for Haley and $35 million for DeSantis, reflected the outcomes. Indian-American candidate Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after receiving only 7.7% of the votes and pledged support to Trump.
DeSantis hinted at the possibility of winding up his campaign if results were unfavorable, acknowledging, "I'm in it to win it, and at some point, if that's not working out for you, I recognize that."
Haley's performance in New Hampshire's primary will be crucial in determining her standing against Trump. Polls from the opinion research site 538 show Trump leading Haley by 13.1%, with 49.1% to her 33%, marking the best showing by any candidate against Trump so far.
While Haley's home state of South Carolina follows New Hampshire with primaries on February 24, polls indicate a significant lead for Trump with 61%, while Haley trails with 24.8%. DeSantis, at 8.9%, is engaged in a battle for the second spot.
The major primary in Michigan, another key state, sees Trump leading with 63.7%, Haley at 16.2%, and DeSantis at 9.3%, according to 538. In Super Primary States like California, Virginia, and Massachusetts, Trump holds commanding leads in the 60% range, virtually ensuring his Republican nomination.
The dynamics may change if unforeseen events knock Trump out of the race before the Republican Party Convention in July. In such a scenario, DeSantis, who aligns ideologically with Trump, could gain support from Trump's base.
Haley, considered more centrist, faces challenges within the reshaped Republican Party. While she may appeal to a broader audience in a general election, her position is complicated by the party's shift towards populism and the radical right.
The endorsements and financial support Haley receives from billionaires and prominent figures, including JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Koch brothers, and Reid Hoffman, highlight the divisions within the party.
The 2028 Republican race, if contested between DeSantis and Haley, will depend on the Trump base's alignment and Trump's endorsements. Both candidates have been cautious in their criticism of Trump, recognizing the influence he holds within the party. The outcome will hinge on how Trump factors into the equation, either as an endorser or a candidate himself.
(With Agency Inputs)
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