Majority to Congress party in Haryana and a hung house in Jammu and Kashmir have emerged most of the exit poll predictions released on Saturday.
The exit poll predictions by various agencies are made after collecting voter feedback after the polling.
Dainik Bhaskar exit polls predict that the Congress is likely to emerge victorious in 44-54 of the total 90 seats in the Haryana assembly, thus gaining clear majority. A BJP victory is likely on 19-29 seats, this exit poll predicts. The majority mark in Haryana stands at 46 seats.
Exit poll numbers by pollsters such as Axis My India, C-Voter, Nielsen, and Chanakya-live-streamed their exit poll predictions for Haryana and J&K assembly polls along with new channels from 6.30 pm-half an hour after the voting in Haryana for its 90 assembly seats got over.
The polls for the two constituencies have been held in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1. The results of both the elections would be declared on October 8.
BJP is likely to bag 20-25 seats, while the National Conference-Congress alliance would emerge victorious with 35-40 seats, Dainik Bhaskar exit poll stated. PDP is likely to win 4-7 seats, while others will bag 12-16 seats, as said by Dainik Bhaskar.
India Today-C Voter Predicts 23-27 BJP Seats In Jammu And Kashmir, 40-48 To NC-Congress Alliance The PDP bags 6-12 seats and others 6-11 seats in J&K, as per India Today-C Voter Exit Poll.
The BJP will win 28-30 seats in J&K, says an exit poll by Gulistan-a local news channel. The NC will win 28-30 seats, Congress 3-6 seats, and PDP will win 5-7 seats, this exit poll says. Others will get 8-16 seats.
Past Exit Polls
Indeed, while the aim of exit polls is to reflect well the sentiment of people long before the announcement of actual results, they have been criticized in the past for their accuracy.
At least 12 exit polls had forecast a landslide win for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Lok Sabha Election 2024. However, the predictions went horribly wrong again. The actual results saw the BJP-led NDA ending at just 293 seats. To be more specific, just like not being able to achieve a simple majority on its own in 2019, this time around, too, the BJP simply could not achieve a simple majority on its own.
However, in the last Jammu and Kashmir elections held in 2014, the exit poll predictions turned out to be almost accurate to the real results. The exit polls had forecast that PDP will be the single-largest party with 32-38 seats in the 87-member house, falling just short of crossing the magic mark of 44 seats, while the BJP will manage 27-33. The NC was estimated at 8-14 and Congress at 4-10. The number wasn't far from the mark. The PDP emerged victorious with 28 seats, BJP with 25, NC with 15, and Congress with 12.
The NC and Congress in an alliance are contesting in 2024 assembly polls in J&K; BJP and the PDP are other big players in Jammu and Kashmir.
2019 Haryana Assembly Election Exit Poll
The results of the 2019 assembly polls in Haryana indicated that the BJP comfortably crossed the majority mark with all pollsters predicting more than 60 seats in the 90-member Haryana assembly for the saffron party. The exit polls gave about 18 seats to the Congress party.
It turned out that the exit polls were totally wrong. In fact BJP won 40 seats, six short of majority mark and the Congress won 31 seats.
The INDIA bloc, led by Congress, bagged 235 seats defying the exit polls.
BJP eyeing a hat-trick in Haryana
The ruling BJP is eyeing a hat-trick of electoral victories in the state, while the Congress party hopes to come back after being in opposition for a decade in Haryana.
In addition to the BJP and Congress, there is a political stake in today's electoral outcome for the Aam Aadmi Party, the Jannayak Janata Party and the Indian National Lok Dal.
They generate a lot of interest before the actual result day, their inaccuracy in the recent elections notwithstanding. What remains to be seen is how accurately the pollsters will predict the results of the Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir elections this time.
06 Oct 2024, 09:19:53 AM IST Exit Poll 2024 LIVE: Haryana records 65.65% voter turnout, supersedes Lok Sabha polls 2024 turnout Haryana witnessed single-phase polling for 90 Assembly Constituencies with the voting percentage crossing 75 percent, despite witnessing slow and dull voting across more than 20,000 polling stations.
According to the ECI, single-phase polling for General Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Haryana at around 11:45 pm recorded an approximate voter turnout of 65.65 per cent that beats the Lok Sabha 2024 voter turnout in the state, which was at 64.8%.
The three big winners in this were Fatehabad at 74.51%, Yamunanagar at 73.27%, Mewat at 72.83%, and the tail ender - Panchkula at 54.71%.
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