An exclusive opinion poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News offers insights into the upcoming Assembly elections in Rajasthan, indicating that the BJP has a lead over the Congress.
The poll, which is the final one for this round of Assembly elections, suggests that while the Congress has made a significant recovery compared to previous opinion polls, the BJP still maintains an advantage.
Historically, Rajasthan's voters have consistently voted out incumbent governments in Assembly elections since 1993.
According to the CVoter survey, the Congress is projected to secure a vote share of 41.7 percent in the current Assembly elections, an increase from 39.3 percent in the 2018 polls. However, the BJP appears to be in the lead with a projected vote share of 44.8 percent, up from 38.8 percent in the previous Assembly elections.
The BSP and other smaller parties are expected to witness a significant drop in vote share, decreasing from 22 percent in 2018 to approximately 12 percent this time, leading to a more focused contest between the Congress and the BJP.
As per the survey, the Congress is projected to win between 67 to 77 seats in the current elections, which is a significant decrease from the 100 seats it won in the 2018 Assembly elections. The majority mark in the 200-member house is 101.
In contrast, the BJP is projected to win between 114 to 124 seats, indicating that it is well-positioned to secure a comfortable majority in the current elections.
The "others" category, which includes the BSP, had secured 21 seats in the 2018 elections but is projected to decrease to between 5 to 9 seats in the current polls.
A reconciliation with young Congress leader Sachin Pilot and the implementation of several welfare schemes launched in the last six months have contributed to Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's efforts to regain lost ground. However, these efforts may not be enough to secure a victory.
The survey conducted by CVoter interviewed a total of 17,534 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3 percent.
(With Agency Inputs)
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