The India Meteorological Department (IMD), as part of its extended range forecast issued for the period January 20 to February 2, on Thursday predicted rainfall in the run up to January 26 but not on that Republic Day itself.
A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lies over north Pakistan and neighbourhood, an induced cyclonic circulation lies over central parts of Rajasthan, a fresh active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from January 21 onwards while an induced cyclonic circulation is very likely to form over southwest Rajasthan on January 22, it said.
Under the influence of above systems, the IMD said: "Isolated to scattered rainfall/ snowfall is very likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand during next two days and it will increase thereafter with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/snowfall on January 22 and 23 and reduce thereafter."
Isolated to scattered rainfall is very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan on January 20 and 21 and increasing thereafter with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on January 22 and 23. Isolated to scattered rainfall is predicted over east Rajasthan during January 20 to 23, east Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during January 22 to 24 and Madhya Pradesh on January 22 and 23.
Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Punjab on January 22, the IMD said.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim during January 22-24 while isolated thunderstorm with lightning and hail is very likely over west Madhya Pradesh on January 21 and 22, over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, north Rajasthan, east Madhya Pradesh, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on January 22, over Bihar on January 22 and 23, and over Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal on January 23.
The IMD has also predicted strong surface winds (20-30 kmph) over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, and west Uttar Pradesh on January 21 and 22.
It also said fairly widespread to widespread rainfall very likely over northeast India during January 23-25.
Isolated thunderstorms with lightning and hail is very likely over Assam and Meghalaya on January 20 while isolated heavy rainfall is likely over there on January 24.
Under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over Southwest Bay of Bengal and another over south Tamil Nadu in lower tropospheric levels, isolated light rainfall/ thundershower over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, and Mahe is expected during next 4-5 days.
Minimum temperatures are likely to rise by 2-4 degrees Celsius over northwest India during next 2-3 days and fall by 3-5 degree Celsius thereafter.
Very dense fog is very likely in isolated pockets over Uttar Pradesh and dense fog in isolated pockets over Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, west Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on January 21 morning. It is likely to persist over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during subsequent 24 hours i.e. till January 22 morning.
Cold Day to Severe Cold Day conditions is very likely to prevail in isolated pockets of Madhya Pradesh and Cold Day conditions in isolated pockets over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh likely during next 24 hours and over Bihar during next two days.
After the passage of the Western Disturbances on January 24 from north-western parts of India, conditions are likely to be favourable for another fresh spell of dense fog/ low clouds conditions and Cold Day conditions over plains of northwest and adjoining central India during January 25-27. The new spell is likely to be shorter in view of the stronger lower-level westerly winds likely thereafter over these areas, the IMD said.