The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a very hot summer, with temperatures set to rise sharply in the country. India is likely to see six to ten heatwave days between April and June, the IMD said, a figure that may go up to 10-11 by June.
Usually, India experiences four to seven heatwave days in this season. The prediction for 2025, however, is for a more frequent occurrence of such days.
The most affected regions are going to be the east-central parts of the country, which will have to suffer the worst of the heat over the next few months.
This heatwave forecast comes after a remarkably warm start to the year, with March's average temperature measured 0.78°C higher than the long-period average (LPA). IMD Director General of Meteorology, Mr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, attributed this unseasonal warmth to a lack of western disturbances and the overall influence of global warming and climate change.
India's susceptibility to extreme heat becomes apparent from the heatwaves observed between March 10 and March 18 when numerous states hit over 40°C.
India's east-central part, covering states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha in Maharashtra, and part of Gujarat, will have the most severe levels of heat ahead.
The IMD's forecast says day and night temperatures over most parts of India will be above normal through April. Normally, April experiences one to three heatwave days, but this year the number may increase to three to six days. The temperatures are already on the rise, with the respite unlikely till after April 10.
A heatwave is said to occur when the temperature rises above 40°C and ranges from 4.5°C to 6.5°C higher than the average temperature in the plains.
The growing frequency, severity, and longevity of heatwaves over the past few years have been causing alarm, especially as research suggests that global warming is exacerbating the situation with increasing daytime as well as nighttime temperatures.
The IMD forecast April rain to be close to normal, which would make up for the 32.6% deficit in rainfall during March.
Also, the IMD has eliminated the chances of an El Niño event this summer, a climatic phenomenon that normally sees warmer temperatures and deficient monsoon rains.
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