60% of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) high-frequency economic indicators have reached above the level of pre-Covid era. Out of the 48 high-frequency indicators tracked by RBI, 18 are below pre-Covid levels and rest jumped above the mark.
All the parameters were closely monitored in October, only 2 among them (Monthly equity investments by mutual funds and the monthly outstanding for certificates of deposits) were way worse as compared to the level in February, while the Covid-19 that was originated in China, was seen in India as well.
While improving speculations for the current financial year, the RBI said that the recovery is better than expected that even government agrees with the same, although there are chances of possible downside risks.
“The downside risk, however, remains the spread of a second wave of Covid-19. However, there is a growing cautious optimism that the steep plunges of April-June quarter of 2020 may not resurface with significant progress in vaccines and contact-intensive sectors increasingly adapting to a virtual normal,” said the finance ministry in its monthly economic assessment last week.
The indicators in the rising category are pointing towards the view which seems that worst is probably over but after including domestic passenger traffic that are facing restrictions based on capacity imposed by the government of India and corporate bond issuance that has slipped, shows that the worst is not yet over.
