Major central banks will continue to tighten policies in first half of 2022

Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Economic Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence said: The global economic outlook has brightened, with the major economies showing resilience in early 2023. However, persistent core inflation will lead to further monetary tightening, restraining growth. With supply conditions improving, progress in reducing inflation will continue.

With inflation rates uncomfortably high, major central banks will continue to tighten policies in the first half of 2023, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a report.

Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Economic Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence said: "The global economic outlook has brightened, with the major economies showing resilience in early 2023. However, persistent core inflation will lead to further monetary tightening, restraining growth. With supply conditions improving, progress in reducing inflation will continue, allowing central banks to lower interest rates in 2024 25. Therefore, we project world real GDP growth to pick up from 2.0 per cent in 2023 to 2.9 per cent in 2024."

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Asia Pacific will lead all regions in growth as mainland China reopens.

S&P Global Market Intelligence projects Asia Pacific's real GDP growth to pick up from 3.2 per cent in 2022 to 4.2 per cent in 2023, led by an acceleration in mainland China's output from 3.0 per cent to 5.2 per cent growth.

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Although growth in other parts of Asia Pacific will moderate in 2023, India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia will achieve real GDP growth rates above 5.0 per cent.

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However, tightening financial conditions and downturns in segments of the electronics industry will lead to more subdued growth in South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Inflation will slow significantly in 2023 but achieving central bank targets will be a two-year process. Global consumer price inflation eased from a peak of 8.3 per cent year on year (y/y) in September 2022 to an estimated 7.5 per cent in January. Led by a deceleration in goods prices, we expect global inflation to slow to 4.0 per cent in December 2023 as declines in prices of energy and other commodities filter downstream, the report said.

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With inflation rates uncomfortably high, major central banks will continue to tighten policies in the first half of 2023. We expect policy interest rates to reach highs of 5.25 per cent in the US, 4.25 per cent in the UK, and 3.50 per cent (refinance rate) in the eurozone.

The surprising strength of US employment and retail sales in January could lead to more aggressive rate hikes than assumed in the February forecast. We expect that these peak rates will remain in place throughout 2023 to dampen wage pressures and long-run inflation expectations, the report said.

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With forward markets now accepting this view, financial market conditions are tightening, as seen in rising 10-year bond yields.

As inflation approaches target rates, the S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast shows monetary policies starting to ease in the second quarter of 2024, with policy rates falling to their long-run neutral levels by the end of 2025.
 

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