As the Republican presidential race approaches the critical Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries, it was expected to be a referendum on former President Donald Trump. However, media reports suggest that the focus is shifting towards evaluating President Joe Biden's performance due to the strong grip that Trump maintains on the GOP.
Ahead of the 4th GOP debate in Alabama, where four presidential hopefuls are set to engage, contenders like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis appear hesitant to pivot the primary discussion solely towards Trump. This reluctance stems from the concern of potentially alienating a significant portion of Republican voters who have previously supported Trump.
Meanwhile, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a vocal Trump critic, has struggled to gain momentum in his campaign, polling below 4% in Iowa and holding third place in New Hampshire. Christie and other anti-Trump Republicans argue that the party must confront the former president's weaknesses with independent voters. Additionally, Trump's impending legal battles, facing as many as four criminal trials in the coming year, add complexity to the GOP's narrative.
Christie emphasized the potential detrimental impact of Trump's nomination on the party's electoral prospects, stating that Trump's presence could lead to losses in the presidency, both houses of Congress, and other races across the board.
The upcoming debate in Alabama raises the question of whether Trump's presence or absence will dominate discussions. Trump has opted to skip this debate, similar to the previous ones, by hosting a fundraiser in Florida instead.
Experts and analysts anticipate that the issue of Trump might not surface significantly during the debate, considering the limited advantage it holds for the challengers in gaining attention or support from Republican voters. Many non-Trump candidates are cautious about directly attacking the party's unquestioned leader, fearing repercussions from grassroots Republican voters.
Surprisingly, criticism aimed at Trump seems to have bolstered his political standing within the Republican base. Despite attacks from various quarters, including GOP rivals, Democrats, and legal authorities on multiple charges, Trump's support among Republican voters has remained steadfast.
Trump's legal troubles, including trials in Washington, D.C., Georgia, New York, and Florida, haven't visibly dented his backing within the party. Critics' opposition has seemingly contributed to solidifying his support base in the Republican primary.
Republican political consultant Mike Madrid, an opponent of Trump's campaign, noted that criticism directed at Trump tends to reinforce his position among Republican voters. Trump maintains substantial leads of over 45 percentage points in national polls.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres outlined three segments within the GOP voters: "Always Trump," "Maybe Trump," and "Never Trump." Challengers aiming for the "Maybe Trump" segment tread cautiously in criticizing Trump, aiming to present a case against him without alienating undecided voters.
Despite preferences or inclinations, the Republican race has undeniably been shaped and defined by Trump. His overwhelming personality and influence have essentially taken over the party's landscape, making it the centerpiece of the ongoing political discourse within the GOP.
(With Agency Inputs)
ALSO READ | Biden's Nomination of Indian-American VC for Prominent Role
ALSO READ | Four Republican Candidates Eligible for Fourth Presidential Debate
