New information published Thursday by federal health authorities indicates the United States' birthrate fell to an all-time low in 2024, with less than 1.6 children born per woman.
For decades, the U.S. was unique among developed countries by having a fertility rate that permitted each generation to replace itself — about 2.1 births per woman. But that trend has been gradually weakening in the last 20 years, as women are waiting longer to have children or forgoing childbirth altogether.
The most recent number is reflected in fertility levels also seen throughout much of Western Europe, a World Bank statistic shows.
As a response to the ongoing slide, the Trump administration has acted to try and turn it around. Among measures are an executive order to increase access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) and lower its costs, along with backing for programs like "baby bonuses" to incentivize couples to have children.
Despite these measures, though, some experts add that the decline isn't necessarily a cause for alarm. Leslie Root, a researcher specializing in fertility and population policy at the University of Colorado Boulder, says the trend is part of an ongoing broader shift in the timing of reproduction.
We're viewing this as a continuation of a process of delay in fertility. We understand that the population of the U.S. continues to grow, and we continue to have a natural increase — more births than deaths," Root clarified.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the U.S. posted the new 2024 fertility rate statistics, based on the latest birth statistics available.
Historically, the country's fertility rate had hovered around 3.5 children per female in the early 1960s. That fell dramatically to 1.7 by 1976 following the end of the Baby Boom. It recovered gradually to reach the replacement rate of 2.1 in 2007, but it then declined again, except for a minimal increase in 2014. It was 1.621 in 2023 and decreased to 1.599 in 2024, based on the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.
Birth rate declines cut across almost all age groups of women — a trend not likely to reverse anytime soon, says Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina.
People are delaying marriage and struggling with economic insecurity, inadequate health coverage, and uncertainty about having the resources to support children, she says.
"Worry is not a good moment to have kids," said Guzzo, describing why most age-specific fertility rates are flat or declining.
Regarding the policies of the Trump administration that are designed to raise the birth rate, Guzzo responded that the measures do not encompass essential requirements such as paid family leave and reasonable child care.
"The things that they are doing are really symbolic and not likely to budge things for real Americans," she said.
Mild Increase in Deliveries In Spite of Decline in Fertility Rate
Notably, the CDC's updated report — based on a more comprehensive set of birth certificates than the preliminary data released earlier this year — reported a 1% increase in overall births in 2024 over the previous year. That equates to about 33,000 more births, putting the overall number of infants born in the U.S. during last year at just above 3.6 million.
But this expansion had some subtleties. Earlier data had indicated that women in their late 20s and 30s were seeing birth rates increase. But the revised analysis shows a falling rate of births for women in their 20s and early 30s, with no significant change for women in their late 30s.
This difference is due to changes made to accommodate updated U.S. Census population estimates, which are utilized to determine birth rates, CDC officials say.
That explanation sounds reasonable, said Root. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age — primarily the result of immigration — would counteract any modest increase in births among those groups, she said.
Read also| Türkiye Unveils Tayfun Block 4 Hypersonic Missile — Supplier to Pakistan's Arsenal
Read also| Russian Plane with 49 Aboard Crashes After Vanishing from Radar; Wreckage Found in Flames
