A recently unveiled mega poll conducted by a civil society campaign organization suggests that the Conservative Party, currently in power, is poised for a significant setback in the forthcoming general election, potentially even jeopardizing British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's seat in North Yorkshire.
The poll, known as MRP and comprising 15,029 respondents, was carried out by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain. It reveals that the Labour Party is leading with 45 percent of the vote share, enjoying a substantial 19-point advantage over the Conservatives. This marks a three-point increase for Labour since the previous poll conducted by the group at the end of the previous year. According to analysis from 'The Sunday Times' based on this comprehensive seat-by-seat survey, the Tories are facing their lowest prospects on record, poised to secure fewer than 100 seats. Meanwhile, Labour could potentially secure a staggering 468 seats, granting Opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer's party an imposing 286-seat majority.
Best for Britain's analysis asserts, "Our MRP forecast indicates that if the election were held imminently, the Conservatives under Sunak's leadership would suffer a loss of 250 MPs nationwide, with the Labour Party emerging triumphant with 468 seats. This would mark the Conservatives' poorest performance ever in a General Election."
Furthermore, the analysis points out the vulnerability of key Conservative seats, notably Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, where Labour is trailing by a mere 2.4 percent. Similar tight margins are observed in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's new constituency of Godalming and Ash, with the Liberal Democrats trailing by just 1 percent.
The analysis predicts a grim outlook for incumbent Cabinet members, suggesting that only 13 out of the estimated 28 Cabinet members contesting the election would be re-elected. Although the survey did not factor in undecided voters, constituting approximately 15 percent of respondents, the Tories are hopeful of swaying them in their favor as the election approaches.
Lord David Frost, former Brexit secretary and a vocal critic of Sunak, commented on the dire state of affairs facing the Conservative Party, stating, "The polling trends are not in our favor; they're worsening with time."
Concerns loom over Sunak's leadership, with aides fearing a potential challenge following anticipated defeats in the upcoming local council and mayoral elections on May 2. This could reignite talks of rebellion within the party, which have persisted despite attempts to quell dissent. One Tory MP expressed apprehension about the possibility of a leadership challenge, remarking, "If Sunak were to call an election, there's a real risk of upheaval with attempts to oust him before Parliament's dissolution."
To trigger a vote of no-confidence in Sunak, 53 MPs would need to sign letters of no-confidence for the party's influential backbench 1922 Committee. Reports suggest that around 25 MPs have already expressed dissent, with expectations of additional MPs joining their ranks in the near future.
Although the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in 2022 reinstated the prime minister's authority to set election dates, the law mandates a general election at least once every five years, setting January 2025 as the outer limit for Sunak to call for elections. Despite this, Sunak has hinted at his intention to hold a general election in the latter half of 2024, with October-November emerging as a potential timeframe.
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