In a surprising setback for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party lost a closely watched federal by-election on Tuesday to the Conservatives in a long-held Liberal stronghold, prompting opposition leader Pierre Poilievre to call for an early election.
The Conservative candidate, Don Stewart, clinched victory in Toronto-St. Paul’s by defeating Liberal candidate Leslie Church by 590 votes, ending the Liberal Party's three-decade dominance in the district. The by-election also featured Amrit Parhar from the New Democratic Party.
Toronto-St. Paul’s, located in Toronto, Ontario, has been a Liberal stronghold since 1993 and holds one of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.
Stewart's win over Church is notable as the Liberals had secured the seat in the last 10 consecutive elections. Former MP Carolyn Bennett, whose resignation triggered the by-election, had represented the area for over 25 years.
Preliminary results show Stewart received 42.1% of the votes, totaling 15,555 ballots, while Church secured 40.5%, with 14,965 votes cast for her. NDP candidate Parhar came third with 10.9% of the votes, and Green Party candidate Christian Cullis received 2.9%.
Losing this historically significant seat is likely to increase pressure on Prime Minister Trudeau, according to Global News.
"The Liberals' poor performance in such a strong base could lead Trudeau to reflect on his declining popularity amid issues like inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices, and rising immigration levels," commented CBC News.
The upset victory by the Conservatives may also unsettle the Liberal caucus, as it suggests other traditionally safe seats could be at risk in the upcoming general election, expected in 2025.
Conservative leader Poilievre urged Trudeau to call a snap election following what he described as a "shocking upset" on social media Tuesday.
"Trudeau cannot continue like this. He must call an election focused on carbon tax now," Poilievre tweeted.
Throughout the campaign, voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s voiced concerns about the government's handling of housing, inflation, and international conflicts. Some expressed a desire for change and dissatisfaction with Trudeau's leadership.
Even former and current Liberal supporters suggested Trudeau should step down if the party loses this historically significant Liberal stronghold.
Trudeau, 52, who strained relations with India last September over allegations involving the killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada, has given no indication he plans to resign. He has repeatedly affirmed his intention to lead the Liberal Party into the upcoming federal election.
Meanwhile, national polling indicates Trudeau's Liberal Party is struggling to maintain support, with Conservative backing on the rise. According to an Ipsos poll for Global News, Trudeau's declining popularity seems to be dragging down the Liberals' prospects.
A majority of voters (68%) believe Trudeau should step down, a sentiment described by Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker as "close to rock bottom." Meanwhile, Conservative leader Poilievre, 45, is gaining ground.
The poll indicated Conservatives leading with 42% of the decided vote, while Liberals lagged at 24%. Nearly half (44%) believed Poilievre would make the best prime minister, and 75% expressed a desire for another party to take over from the Liberals.
Only 25% felt the Liberals deserved reelection, as reported by Global News.
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