Even as it ratcheted up trade tensions with Washington, China's exports jumped sharply by 12.4% in last month, far surpassing market forecasts and lending a temporary respite to its tenuous economic pickup.
The most recent customs statistics, published Monday by Beijing's General Administration of Customs, indicate the nation is weathering a tough trade environment catalyzed by U.S. President Donald Trump's belligerent tariff policies.
The strong jump in March exports was over twice the 4.6% increase that economists forecasted in a Bloomberg poll. Imports fell 4.3% to year-earlier levels, reflecting that underlying domestic weaknesses remain unresolved—a front on which China could particularly need to shore up that it has promised to reinforce as part of its overall economic plan.
Earlier this month, policymakers in China issued a bold economic goal of around 5% growth annually, highlighting a shift towards stimulating internal consumption and curbing dependence on foreign markets. But that strategy now comes under new challenges with Washington's sweeping tariffs on Chinese products becoming effective this month.
Relations between the U.S. and China have worsened in recent weeks, with the Trump administration having escalated tariffs on nearly all Chinese imports to levels as high as 145%. Beijing retaliated by imposing duty of up to 125% on American imports, sparking renewed fears of an extended trade war.
Nevertheless, the United States was China's leading export market in the first quarter, with exports worth $115.6 billion—highlighting the persistent economic relationship between the two superpowers even as political tensions rise.
"The robust export performance probably represents a scramble to move goods before the U.S. tariff increases," said Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "But we anticipate that this steam will run out of steam in the next few months as the full impact of the trade measures begins to bite."
China's economic recovery is still unbalanced, hindered by soft consumer spending and a lingering debt crisis in the real estate market. While policymakers introduced a range of policy moves last year—from interest rate reductions, removal of homebuying curbs, increases in local government borrowing ceilings, and improvement in support to capital markets—the impact has been uneven.
Expectations of a huge economic stimulus package had originally triggered a steep rally in Chinese markets during 2024, but investor enthusiasm waned as policymakers did not provide detailed funding plans or timelines for action.
As global trade conditions grow more uncertain and domestic challenges continue, analysts note China's capacity to maintain its recovery will hinge on how well it can shore up domestic demand while coping with external shocks.
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