Lockdown

Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent. Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office's (NSO's) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.

While Brent crude lost more than $3 a barrel on concerns that the move would mean that demand for oil will fall, the Shanghai Composite stock index fell in early trade before regaining most of the losses later in the morning. Until now, Chinese authorities had resisted locking down the city of almost 25 million people to avoid destabilising the world's second largest economy.

India's economy which is already reeling under inflationary pressure, now faces an ever increasing risk of stagflation. The economic trend of stagflation is marked by rising inflation and stagnant GDP growth. The trend is expected to accelerate the pace of inflation in coming months.

The crisis has led to a global spike in international prices of crude oil, natural gas, coal, nickel, copper, aluminium, titanium and palladium.The high commodity costs will impact manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, which are key contributors to growth and job creation. Already, the manufacturing sector is reeling under expensive commodities costs due to rise in their international demand and supply constraints.

Stagflation is characterised by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment -- or economic stagnation. Credit Suisse has announced a tactical downgrade of India from Overweight to Underweight. Higher oil prices hurt the current account, add to inflationary pressures and increase sensitivity to Fed rate hikes.

Sensex was 1.6 per cent or 921 points down at 55,326 points, whereas Nifty 1.4 per cent or 232 points down at 16,562 points. Lower than expected GDP growth during Q3FY22 also weighed on the investors sentiment.

On Monday, the 'Second Advance Estimates of National Income for financial year 2021-22', estimated that 'Real GDP' or 'GDP at Constant Prices' (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 will rise to Rs 147.72 lakh crore from the 'First Revised Estimate of GDP' for 2020-21 at Rs 135.58 lakh crore. "The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9 per cent as compared to a contraction of 6.6 per cent in 2020-21," the National Statistical Office (NSO) said.

India's Q3FY22 GDP growth rate stood to 5.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis.The Q3FY22 GDP, at constant prices of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs 38.22 lakh crore, as against Rs 36.26 lakh crore during the corresponding period of 2020-21. On a YoY basis, India's GDP growth rate had inched-up by 0.7 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

Global trends surrounding the evolving Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as key domestic macro-economic data points will set the course for the Indian equity market's trajectory in the coming week. Besides, investors will watch out for fluctuations in crude oil prices and currency movements. These global trends are also expected to influence the direction of FIIs' funds which will, in turn, have an overall bearing on the market sentiment.

Global trends surrounding the evolving Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as key domestic macro-economic data points will set the course for the Indian equity market's trajectory in the coming week. Besides, investors will watch out for fluctuations in crude oil prices and currency movements. These global trends are also expected to influence the direction of FIIs' funds which will, in turn, have an overall bearing on the market sentiment.