Lockdown
India's domestic demand to sustain growth
Early trends for July indicate data holding across sectors with mobility (ex-residential) fairly steady and unemployment levels lower than in the previous month. Credit growth continues to rise -- it has reached its highest level since April 2019.
FIIs turning positive boosts stock markets
Domestic equities continued its northbound journey on the back of positive global cues and better than expected 1QFY23 earnings. Nifty opened higher and sustained momentum to close near day's high with gains of 114 points (0.7 per cent) at 16,719. Barring IT, pharma and oil & gas, all other sectors ended in green with banking and financial services being top gainers, up more than 1 per cent.
Cloud adoption can add $380 bn to India's GDP, create 14 mn jobs: Nasscom
However, India may lose $118 billion in GDP contribution and five million job opportunities by 2026 if businesses and government are late to Cloud adoption, the report warned. With global players heading towards new systems like 3D printing, IoT, robotic automation, slow or low adoption in Cloud may result in Indian industries losing competitive edge and India may lose its attractiveness among investors, expats and new businesses.
Trade deficit, capital outflows Indian rupee: USD to be at Rs.78.50-80: Kotak Securities
In a research report, Kotak Securities said with risks of global slowdown and correction in global commodity prices, exports could soften further while imports hold on implying risks of a wider trade deficit. According to the report, exports in June increased by 16.8 per cent to $37.9 billion (May: $38.9 billion) while declining by 2.6 per cent month-on-month.
India's GDP data for FY22, Q4: Here's what experts have to say
The GDP grew 4.1 per cent year on year in Q4FY22 as against 1.6 per cent during the same quarter of FY21. Here's what some of the observers have to say on the GDP figures: Vivek Rathi, Director - Research at Knight Frank India. Global spillovers of supply shortages, crude oil shock and higher input costs thwarted India's growth momentum in 4Q FY22.
Morgan Stanley lowers India's GDP growth forecast
The foreign brokerage said slower global growth, adverse terms of trade shock, and impact on business confidence from geopolitical tensions weigh on the near-term outlook Morgan Stanley's global economics team expects global growth to average 2.9 per cent YoY in 2022 slowing from 6.2 per cent growth in CY21. Against this backdrop, it has lowered forecasts of India's GDP growth .
India Ratings revise its FY23 GDP growth forecast downwards to 7-7.2%
Accordingly, the ratings agency believes that its 'FY23 Economic Outlook' released in January 2022 is unlikely to hold in view of the global geo-political situation arising out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "Since the duration of Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be uncertain, Ind-Ra has created two scenarios with respect to the FY23 economic outlook basis certain assumptions."
ICRA cuts India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%
Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent. Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office's (NSO's) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.
Oil prices fall as China imposes largest lockdown in Shanghai
While Brent crude lost more than $3 a barrel on concerns that the move would mean that demand for oil will fall, the Shanghai Composite stock index fell in early trade before regaining most of the losses later in the morning. Until now, Chinese authorities had resisted locking down the city of almost 25 million people to avoid destabilising the world's second largest economy.
Clear and present danger: Expensive commodities raise risk of stagflation
India's economy which is already reeling under inflationary pressure, now faces an ever increasing risk of stagflation. The economic trend of stagflation is marked by rising inflation and stagnant GDP growth. The trend is expected to accelerate the pace of inflation in coming months.
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