GDP

Manufacturing sector contracted for a second straight quarter as demand for manufacturing exports decelerated given the global slowdown. Real GDP growth in FY24 will be in the range of 5.5-6 per cent (vs 7 per cent in FY23), with downside risks, given: (1) urban discretionary demand continues to decelerate along with weak rural demand, (2) private investment remains in the slow lane given rising borrowing costs and sluggish external demand

On a 5 year CAGR trend basis, real GDP is growing at 4 per cent, which is sluggish. The weakness is pronounced in manufacturing (2.7 per cent), whereas services (5 per cent) seems to be doing relatively well. Nominal GDP growth stands at 11 per cent on a trend basis, (similar to pre-Covid trend), aided by higher prices.

Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Economic Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence said: "The global economic outlook has brightened, with the major economies showing resilience in early 2023. However, persistent core inflation will lead to further monetary tightening, restraining growth. With supply conditions improving, progress in reducing inflation will continue.

Acuite Ratings in a report maintaining the trade deficit at $106 billion or 3.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY23 added that there could be cushion in the form of: increased dependence on Russia for oil imports and re-exports, improvement in IT/ITeS service exports and slowing of domestic demand due to monetary policy measures.

According to preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office, Japan's real gross domestic product for the year 2022 came to about 546 trillion yen ($4.1 trillion dollars). For the full year, private demand was up 2.4 per cent from the previous year as household consumption grew 2.2 per cent. Corporate capital investment also increased 1.8 per cent, the data showed.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, the eurozone's GDP is expected to have grown by 1.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, and it was up 1.8 per cent in the EU. in 2022 the eurozone's GDP increased by 3.5 per cent and that of the EU by 3.6 per cent

Chief of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Dennis Mapa told reporters here on Thursday that the 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth is the highest since 1976, reports Xinhua news agency. The sectors which contributed the most to the growth were wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, manufacturing and construction.

"We expect fiscal consolidation on the back of lower subsidy payments, which will also ensure that focus on public capex spending is sustained, thus supporting the growth outlook," the report said. Expenditure ratio is expected to moderately driven by lower subsidy spending, mix of expenditure to improve.

For India, this could make things difficult to set a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) number significantly higher than 10 per cent, with a deflator about 3.5 per cent. But this could also mean a higher GDP growth than anticipated at about 6.2 per cent, he said.

On November 28, the executive board of the IMF concluded the Article IV consultation with India, where it noted that the "Indian economy has rebounded from the deep pandemic-related downturn." It said: "Real GDP grew by 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, bringing total output above pre-pandemic levels.