GDP

Speaking at the CII Partnership Summit 2020, the official said that agriculture has been the positive aspect in the current scenario. "The way we are monitoring the parameters, the GDP growth will be positive in the next quarter. Agriculture has been the positive aspect in the current scenario," he said.

According to the report, the consensus forecasts of GDP growth for FY 2022 over FY 2020 stopped falling after October 2020 (currently at -1 %). Analysts expect these estimates to be revised upwards.

According to the agency, in Q3FY21, rising raw material and wage costs would partly counteract the positive impact of a modest rise in volumes in the industrial sector. Consequently, with a steady performance of the agricultural sector and a lagged recovery in the contact-intensive parts of the services sector, ICRA forecasts a small contraction of 1 per cent in the India's GDP in Q3FY21.

"Our revised GDP estimates are based on SBI 'Nowcasting Model' with 41 high frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy," the report said. "We have used the dynamic factor model to estimate the common or representative or latent factor of all the 41 high frequency indicators from Q4 of 2012 to Q4 of 2020 (till November actual data is used while trend is used for December)."