GDP

In the near term the spike in the US 10-year bond yield above 4 per cent has triggered selling by FIIs who might be moving some money to the US bonds. The domestic market construct continues to be resilient. Thursday's US CPI inflation print will be keenly watched by markets, he said.

Results have been a mixed bag. The buoyancy in the markets is spearheaded by FPIs who have been pouring money into the markets on a sustained basis. Barring a brief period when they were selling in India to buy stocks in China, the situation has now reversed completely.

Household NFS had fallen to a three-decade low of 6 per cent of the GDP in FY23E, almost half of the peak in FY21 and down from 7.5-8.0 per cent of the GDP in the pre-Covid period. Due to weak income growth and an assumed rise in NFS, personal consumption and/or residential investments growth would grow slowly in FY24, which could disrupt the retail lending boom this year.

Capex growth has largely held up on higher government (Centre and state) capex and strong demand for residential real estate. However, the pick-up in private corporate capex remains gradual on weak goods export demand and global growth uncertainty. Finally, while India's goods exports have contracted for the past five months, services exports have remained largely stable, it said.

India has now moved up to the 5th rank in GDP globally compared to 10th in 2014; the per capita income rank, while still lagging at 127th, has improved from 147th in 2014, the report said. Landmark reforms such as GST mark this phase, and inflation control has also been remarkable. This has been led by lower MSP hikes, a lucky break on the crude/commodity price and prudent measures during the Covid-19 pandemic.

These top seven stocks, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla, are called as the ‘Magnificent Seven’. The Top 7 stocks drove 73 per cent of S&P 500 gains in 1H, each up 90 per cent on average in 1H. These have a market capitalisation of roughly equivalent to half of US GDP.

Retail and HNI participation is now 69 per cent of NSE's cash market turnover as compared to 58 per cent in FY16. The total market cap of companies in India stands at $ 3.5tn (as on June 30, 2023), with indicators such as Mcap / GDP ratio (India at 93 per cent vs 183 per cent of US) and turnover to Mcap (India at 50 per cent vs US at 148 per cent) pointing towards a long growth runway.

GDP across the Euro area shrank by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, downgraded from a previous estimate that the economy stagnated, The Guardian reported. This follows a 0.1 per cent contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter of last year, meaning the 20-nation economy has shrunk for two quarters in a row - the standard definition of a recession, the report said.

The Controller General of Accounts (CGA) said that the fiscal deficit in absolute terms was Rs 17,33,131 crore (provisional), which was marginally down from the amount projected in the revised estimates (RE) in the budget.

"We are now prepared to say that risks to our GDP growth forecast of 6.5 per cent for 2023-24 are now more evenly balanced than a few months ago when downside risks to the forecast were greater," Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran told reporters after GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022-23 and for the entire fiscal was released.