GDP

The GDP estimate for the first quarter of FY22 is lower than the 21.4 per cent growth estimated by the Reserve Bank of India. The gross value added (GVA) is estimated at 15 per cent, as per the SBI report. "Based on SBI Nowcasting model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias)," it said. A substantial recovery is visible in corporate GVA in Q1 FY22.

According to Ind-Ra, the GDP trend is supported by ebbing of Covid 2.0, along with Kharif sowing, which has seen a significant pick-up with the revival of south-west monsoon and robust exports volume. "If India is able to vaccinate its entire adult population by December 31, 2021, the GDP growth is expected to come in at 9.6 per cent YoY in FY22, otherwise it may slip to 9.1 per cent," the ratings agency said.

ICRA also expects the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices at constant 2011-12 prices at 17 per cent in Q1FY22. The ratings agency said that the trend has been supported by healthy Central and state government capital spending, robust merchandise exports and resilient demand from the farm sector. Muted base of last year's nationwide lockdown has aided in concealing the impact of the second wave of Covid-19.

MOFSL  now projects real GDP growth of 8.7 per cent in FY22, down from 11.1 per cent expected earlier. Nonetheless, it revised upwards its FY23 forecasts to 5.4 per cent now from an earlier 4 per cent. It also said that nominal GDP growth is now projected at 15.6 per cent for FY22 vis-a-vis 15.1 per cent earlier and 10 per cent for FY23.

"Ultra-high frequency indicators strongly presage growth recovery following the second wave of the pandemic," said T.V. Narendran, CEO and Managing Director of Tata Steel, who took charge as President CII on May 31, 2021. "With recent uptick in mobility indicators, traffic congestion index and daily railway passenger movement, we believe that 9.5 per cent growth rate can be achieved this year."

The service sector grew by 3.4 per cent month-on-month, whereas output in the production and construction sector fell by 1.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

India's GDP growth has been projected at 8.5 per cent in FY22, said ratings agency ICRA. The year-on-year (YoY) growth of GDP and gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) is expected to reach 8.5 per cent and 7.3 per cent respectively, in FY2022.

Its previous projection was 10.5 per cent. "While all indications pointed to a stable recovery process before the 2nd wave struck, this is now likely to be pushed back to an extent. For FY22, we expect real GDP growth at 8.5 per cent, weaker than our previous estimate of 10.5 per cent," said the report titled 'India GDP: Marathon effort ahead' prepared by Yes Bank's Economist department.

Addressing the media after the release of the GDP numbers, the CEA also said that giving any actual numbers for economic forecast would not be prudent as the pandemic is evolving and the economic trajectory of the country totally depends on the severity of the pandemic. "Whether or not that will be double digit or single digit there is uncertainty because scientists are also talking of a possibility of a third wave"

The 2020-21 deficit -- the difference between revenue and expenditure -- has been enhanced to Rs 18.48 lakh crore or around 9.5 per cent of the GDP, as compared to the earlier target of Rs 7.96 lakh crore for the last fiscal. As per the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) data, the fiscal deficit 2020-21 period stood at over Rs 18.21 lakh crore, or 98.5 per cent of the revised estimates (RE).