India are sitting third on the World Test Championship (WTC) table after Jasprit Bumrah and Akash Deep's spirited tenth-wicket partnership helped India salvage a crucial draw against Australia in the rain-marred third Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series at the Gabba on Wednesday.
While their effort ensured that the five-match series remained evenly poised at 1-1, it also set the stage for a dramatic finish to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 qualification race.
Both India and Australia saw their WTC points percentage (PCT) dip; India to 55.88 percent and Australia to 58.89 percent. South Africa, meanwhile, with 63.33 PCT are out in front of the standings and in the box seat to feature in the one-off Test in June 2025, with Australia and India their closest challengers ahead of the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne and the New Year Test in Sydney at the start of next year.
With only two matches left in the running WTC cycle, the task is almost impossible for India to qualify for the final. Currently at the third position with a PCT of 55.88, India lags behind South Africa and Australia. The only way they can surpass both is if they perform flawlessly in the Tests that are remaining in Melbourne and Sydney.
It won't be easy but is not impossible since, for India to ensure a qualification, they will need to win their two last matches against Australia, though any other result will only leave their fate depending on other results to take it to the Finale in Lord's.
If India wins each of the remaining Tests against Australia, then its PCT would be 60.52, ensuring they end above Australia even if the defending champions manage to post a 2-0 victory in their last series against Sri Lanka.
If India loses one of the remaining two Tests of this series, the team would depend on Sri Lanka to whitewash Australia 2-0.
Whereas India fights for survival, South Africa and Australia are in an easier boat. South Africa's overall domination of Sri Lanka over here at Gqeberha made them the team to beat, so they can easily get themselves in the final if they get a win out of their two Test matches remaining against Pakistan as they have a PCT of over 60%. Even if they lose both matches, they still are strong contenders unless India pull off a miraculous 3-1 series victory in Australia.
Australia, sitting at second, travels to Sri Lanka for two Tests. A 2-0 series win will give them the final spot provided India lose in either Melbourne or Sydney.
For India, the equation is simple yet daunting: win both Tests against Australia or risk elimination.
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