The T20 World Cup 2024 is getting down to the wire in its Super Eight stage, just two rounds remaining in Group 2. While the English, West Indian, and South African teams are fighting hard for any of the semifinal spots, the USA will need some extraordinary victories that could move them ahead, though mathematically they are still in the race.
Here is how the different scenarios can turn out in upcoming matches: England vs USA and West Indies vs South Africa.
If England and West Indies Win:
This will throw up a three-way tie, with all three teams—England, West Indies, and South Africa—level on four points if England and West Indies win. It is the dominant performance put in by the West Indies recently against the USA that has given them a strong position because of their better net run rate. If West Indies beat South Africa, they will qualify irrespective of the outcome between England and USA.
All depends, therefore, on England's NRR. They have to win by such a margin that, added to the defeat of South Africa, totals an NRR differential of 10 or more, assuming a first-innings score of 160. For example, if England wins by 10 runs, it will go through even if South Africa loses in a Super Over. If it is less than 10 runs, South Africa will go through on NRR.
If USA and South Africa win,
South Africa will be well ahead at the top of the group with six points; England, West Indies, and USA will all have two. And England's hopes will rest on the defeat margin. If England loses in a Super Over chasing 160, for example, West Indies must lose by at least 43 runs to end up below them on NRR. The West Indies will be helped by a larger defeat margin for England, making both of them likely to advance to the semi-finals at South Africa's expense. USA will need monumental efforts with their poor NRR: they have to win against England by at least 56 runs and then hope that the West Indies lose by 91 runs or more to keep their slight hopes alive.
If USA and West Indies Win:
If both the USA and West Indies win, then it would mean that South Africa with four points and West Indies will advance to the semis, with England along with the USA ending with two points apiece to see them out of the race for the semis.
If England, South Africa win:
This simple result gets South Africa through to the top of the group, with six points, England through to the second semi-final spot with four points, and therefore eliminates the West Indies and USA from contention.
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