The BJP comprehensively routed the Congress and other Opposition parties in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections.
The party swept both states and formed the governments there recently.
The Matrize Survey has come up with some insights into what led to the BJP's significant triumph in these states, despite the party's relatively lower performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The survey has highlighted several factors, including the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Congress-led Opposition's failure to pose any challenge to the BJP effectively.
The agency has also spotlighted shifts in voter sentiment between the two elections.
The Congress' bid to capitalise on the narrative of 'constitutional changes', also failed to make any impact in the Assembly elections.
The survey was conducted between November 25, 2024 and December 14, 2024 with a sample size of 76,830 in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana.
Important takeaways from the Matrize Survey
Massive and sustained popularity of PM Modi
Though the BJP secured only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year, PM Modi remained extremely popular among voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana, as the survey indicates. His image as a strong and influential leader remained intact. This is a very important finding, as the survey reveals that voters in both states maintained an unwavering trust in PM Modi, which played a pivotal role in the Assembly election outcomes. Around 55 per cent of voters surveyed in Maharashtra found a jump in PM Modi’s popularity. Similarly, 53 per cent of Haryana voters surveyed saw growth in PM Modi’s charisma.
Jolt to Congress' narrative on the Constitution
One of the most significant factors identified in the Matrize Survey was the setback to the Congress' narrative which its leader Rahul Gandhi spun during the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress had built a narrative that the Modi government intended to change the Constitution. This claim seemed to have gained some traction initially during the parliamentary elections. However, it failed to create any impact during the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. In both states, the Congress' attempts to push issues such as constitutional changes, farm laws and wrestlers' 'problems' were largely ineffective. Such issues were not considered significant in Assembly polls, which led to shifts in support towards the BJP.
Perception of voters about Congress leadership
Major findings of this survey lie in the fact that a major portion of voters distrust Congress MP Rahul Gandhi. He was considered to be the face of the opposition in Maharashtra and Haryana. Another significant reason behind the poor show of the Opposition was his inability to bring a viable alternative to PM Modi. The voters were raising questions over the leadership capability of the Congress, as Rahul Gandhi was seen as very detached from the ground reality, and in comparison with this, PM Modi was always seen as a strong decision-maker. This factor dominated the victory of BJP in these states.
Change in Voter Behavior in between Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections
It is also indicated here that the large sections of voters from Maharashtra and Haryana, which had made the wrong decision and did not vote for BJP in Lok Sabha elections, must have rectified their judgment in the Assembly polls. The growing confidence in leadership of PM Modi and the activity of the central government furthered positively in the voters' lives. The Opposition was simply unable to offer a clear and coherent alternative. A preference was thus clearly in sight for the BJP in the state elections.
BJP strategic messaging and leadership
The Matrize Survey was also marked by the BJP's effective messaging in the Assembly election. The slogan "Ek Hain to Safe Hain" (When united, we are safe) won many hearts among the voters across Maharashtra and Haryana, as this narrative had talked about stability, national security, and economic growth that PM Modi had given this country, making BJP the safer choice.
The Congress' divisive rhetoric and the infighting among its leadership members alienated the voters. The inability to challenge the BJP's narrative effectively was visible, especially when the public was disenchanted with the factionalism of the Congress.
Local leadership and organisational factors
The Haryana factor was in the leadership change from Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar to a new set of faces that contributed to BJP's victory. The switch in leadership helped BJP regain trust; 44% of respondents reported that the change in leadership had a major positive effect. In addition, there were strong local BJP leaders and a well-organized campaign which provided BJP with a good foundation to base its success on.
Role of government schemes and local support,
The concentration of BJP on local issues and welfare schemes also played an important role in getting electoral support. In both the states, the initiatives undertaken by the BJP government in respect of agriculture, infrastructure development, and rural development programs positively impacted the voters' mind. The voters are satisfied with the policies of the government and were impressed by all the schemes.
With all these details in view, the Matrize Survey has given a clear picture of why BJP won the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana.
A number of interlinked factors have contributed to this victory: PM Modi and the continuation of trust in his leadership, a significant setback for the Opposition's narrative, particularly for the Congress in trying to capitalize on constitutional changes, which did not affect Assembly elections, correction of voters' previous Lok Sabha mistake, especially in the context of the BJP's governance and message of stability, and the BJP's leadership change, messaging, and welfare schemes that consolidated support.
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