With more women and OBC voters supporting the BJP in the February 5 Assembly election, the party may manage to win 45-55 seats with a vote share of 48 percent as against the ruling AAP's 15-25 seats with a vote share of 42 percent, according to an exit poll by Axis My India that was released on Thursday.
The shift in BJP's fortune seems to be correlated with an increase in Congress' vote share from 4.62 per cent in 2020 to a possible 7 per cent, the poll said, adding that almost 74 per cent of Muslim voters backed the AAP.
Another poll agency, Today's Chanakya, gave the BJP 51 (plus/minus six seats with a vote share of 49 per cent (plus/minus 3 per cent).
It gave the AAP 19 seats (plus/minus 6 seats) with a vote share of 41 per cent (plus/minus 3 per cent).
The two Exit Poll reports released on Thursday were reconfirmation of the findings of a majority of exit polls that indicate, within hours of end of polling, an edge for the BJP over its rival AAP while giving the Congress 0-1 seat.
The result for the 70-member Assembly poll will be declared on February 8.
The election recorded a 60.44 per cent turnout, around 2 percentage points lower than the 62.59 per cent in the 2020 Assembly poll. The turnout in the Lok Sabha election was 58 per cent.
According to Axis My India pollsters, in the just-concluded election, 46 per cent of women voters supported the BJP as compared to 44 per cent for AAP. About 50 per cent of male voters supported the BJP as compared to 40 per cent for AAP.
Similarly, young voters between 18-25 years favored the BJP with 46 percent support over the AAP with 44 percent support.
Almost 52 per cent of the 61-plus voters supported the BJP against 39 per cent for the AAP.
The BJP also received a higher percentage of votes from occupational categories like small shopkeepers, private and government servicemen and students.
In terms of castes and communities, the AAP got a bigger share of votes than the BJP from communities like Muslim (74 per cent), Jatav (60 per cent), Balmiki (53 per cent), SC (51 per cent) and Sikh (69 per cent).
The BJP received the highest percentage of Brahmins (66 per cent), Jats (63 per cent), OBC (58 per cent as against AAP's 34 per cent), Rajputs (61 per cent) and general voters (68 per cent), according to the Axis My India report.
The BJP was also the most preferred party among hill state migrants or voters who have their roots in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
A total of 57 per cent of hilly area residents backed the BJP as compared to 35 per cent for the AAP.
More voters from Bihar (50 per cent), Haryana (54 per cent), Rajasthan (45) and Uttar Pradesh (48) voted for the BJP than for the AAP which was voted for by 43 per cent of Bihari voters, 36 per cent of Haryanvi voters, 42 per cent of UP voters and 44 per cent of Rajasthani voters.
Intensive campaign by Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann failed to bring big rewards for the AAP from the Punjabi voters. The AAP managed to win 45 percent of the votes polled by Punjabi voters whereas BJP won 46 percent of the Punjabi votes.
The AAP scored over the BJP when it came to getting the support of voters from West Bengal and the Northeast, 53 per cent of Bengalis and 55 per cent of Northeast voters backed the AAP, as compared to 37 per cent and 38 per cent for the BJP, respectively.
Read also| Deportation Procedure Not New, Has Been in Place Since 2009: EAM Jaishankar
