International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded India's GDP growth forecast for 2024-25 to 7 percent, up from the previously projected 6.8 percent. This adjustment is attributed to "improving private consumption, particularly in rural India." In its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF noted, "The forecast for growth in India has also been revised upward, to 7 percent, this year, with the change reflecting carryover from upward revisions to growth in 2023 and improved prospects for private consumption, particularly in rural areas."
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Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director, highlighted, “Growth in India and China will account for almost half of global growth in 2024. Growth in major advanced economies is more aligned: Euro area growth picks up as the US shows signs of cooling after a strong year.”
According to the IMF World Economic Outlook, China's growth rate is projected to be 5 percent for 2024 and 4.5 percent for 2025.
In advanced economies, the GDP growth rate for the US is forecasted at 2.6 percent for 2024 and 1.9 percent for 2025.
Japan is expected to see a growth of 0.7 percent in 2024, improving to 1 percent in 2025. The Euro area's GDP growth is forecasted at 0.9 percent in 2024, with an acceleration to 1.5 percent in 2025.
Global growth is projected to align with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.
The IMF report stated, “Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalisation. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher for even longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. The policy mix should thus be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”
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