Apple could see a rebound in its stock price ahead of new product announcements in September and could become the world’s largest smartphone brand by 2023-2024, leading Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said on Monday.
Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, a financial services group in the Asia-Pacific region, said that Apple’s latest iPhone shipment target for 2024 is 250 million units.
“A reasonable 2024 iPhone shipment estimate, from my view, could reach 5-10 per cent YoY. Since Samsung’s internal view of 2024 market demand is still conservative, Apple will likely remain the largest smartphone brand in 2024,” he predicted.
Samsung’s smartphone shipments have been cut to 220 million units this year.
"If Apple keeps the 2H24 iPhone orders unchanged, then the iPhone shipments are expected to reach 220–225 million units in 2023, surpassing Samsung as the largest smartphone brand. This shipment ranking has a long-term positive impact on Apple’s ecosystem,” Kuo further said.
The market is concerned that iPhone 15 shipments will be further cut due to supply chain issues (my estimate of 80 million units vs. conservative views of 70–80 million units), especially iPhone 15 Pro Max shipments will be delayed.
“However, the fact is that the iPhone 15 Pro Max will start mass shipments this week, and Apple is also increasing shipments of legacy models simultaneously,” said Kuo.
With the market being overly conservative on iPhone/iPhone 15 2H24 shipments, leading to a correction in the stock price and a favorable trading sentiment for new product announcements, Apple stock may have a rebound opportunity in the near term, he added.
Apple is all set to launch its next generation of iPhones next month.