A recent comprehensive survey conducted on Wednesday has painted a bleak picture for the governing Conservative Party led by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with the Opposition Labour Party projected to secure a significant victory. The survey, which polled over 18,000 individuals, predicts that Labour could clinch 403 seats, comfortably surpassing the 326 seats needed for a majority.
These new projections, utilizing multi-level modeling and post-stratification (MRP) techniques, come on the heels of a previous large-scale poll conducted over the weekend, which also foresaw a defeat for the Tories. According to the latest figures, Labour, under the leadership of Keir Starmer, is anticipated to gain 201 seats, while the Conservative Party, led by Sunak, is expected to plummet to a mere 155 seats – reflecting a loss of 210 seats.
The implications of these findings suggest a more severe setback for the Tories than the one experienced under former Prime Minister John Major in 1997 when Labour, led by Tony Blair, reduced them to just 165 MPs.
Commenting on the analysis, YouGov stated, "These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats." Conversely, Rishi Sunak appears to be on track for a less favorable outcome than John Major's 1997 total of 165 seats. The impending electoral upheaval projected by this model threatens to unseat several prominent Conservative figures.
Among the notable Members of Parliament at risk of losing their seats are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, science minister Michelle Donelan, and levelling up minister Michael Gove. Additionally, senior Tories such as Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg find themselves in precarious positions with the electorate.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are projected to gain one seat, reaching a total of 49 seats, signaling a potential "significant parliamentary comeback" without notable shifts in their national vote share. In Scotland, YouGov forecasts Labour to emerge as the largest party comfortably.
According to the headline results derived from the MRP model, Labour is anticipated to secure 41 percent of the vote, with the Conservatives trailing at 24 percent. The Liberal Democrats are projected to attain 12 percent, followed by the Greens at 7 percent, far-right Reform UK at 12 percent, and other parties at 1 percent.
YouGov conducted interviews with 18,761 British adults from March 7-27 for this survey. The findings echo previous predictions of a 1997-style outcome for the Conservatives as the nation prepares for upcoming elections, likely to be held in the second half of the year, as indicated by Sunak.
Explaining the methodology, YouGov mentioned that constituency-level projections were estimated using the same statistical method that accurately predicted the outcomes of the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections – multi-level modeling and post-stratification (MRP).
Although the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in 2022 granted British prime ministers the authority to set election dates, the law mandates that a general election must occur at least once every five years, setting January 2025 as the outermost deadline for Sunak to call for elections.
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