Airfinity, a London-based forecasting firm, is predicting Covid-19 infections to reach their first peak in China on January 13, 2023, with 3.7 million cases a day.
Deaths are estimated to peak 10 days later at approximately 25,000 a day, by that stage a total of 584,000 since the virus began surging across the country in December.
"We predict 1.7 million deaths across China by the end of April 2023," the firm said.
Airfinity's model is based on data from China's regional provinces, before changes to reporting infections were implemented, combined with case growth rates from other former Covid-zero countries when they lifted restrictions such as Hong Kong and Japan.
Using the trends in regional data our team of epidemiologists has forecast the first peak to be in regions where cases are currently rising and a second peak driven by later surges in other Chinese provinces.
Airfinity predicts cases in Beijing are likely to have peaked by now, with hospitalisations and deaths likely to peak in the next 1-2 weeks.
"Our model estimates a second peak will occur on the March 3, 2023 where daily cases are likely to reach 4.2 million a day. It is
expected that rural areas with be more impacted in this later wave," it said.
China is predicted to see two peaks in cases as Covid-19 spreads throughout the country, the first peak in mid-January and the second in early March.
New modelling by Airfinity has examined data from China's regional provinces. The current outbreak is growing more rapidly in some regions than in others. Cases are currently rising much more quickly in Beijing and Guangdong.
"Using the trends in regional data our team of epidemiologists has forecast the first peak to be in regions where cases are currently rising and a second peak driven by later surges in other Chinese provinces," the firm says.
The Airfinity model estimates cases rates could reach 3.7 million a day in a January peak and 4.2 million a day in March 2023.
An earlier model suggests that there is likely to be over one million cases a day in China and over 5,000 deaths a day. This is in stark contrast to the official data which is reporting 1,800 cases and only 7 official deaths over the past week.