The arrival of spring in the Northern Hemisphere is a time of the year that is cause for celebration. Indeed, after a long winter, there are few more invigorating experiences than seeing the landscape change from bare to one of abundance. As the old adage dictates: hope really does spring eternal in these moments.
However, the introduction of spring can also be a time of looking over your shoulder and preparing for the worst if you’re a Premier League team in the midst of a relegation fight. Yes, when the leaves begin to blossom and teams find themselves hovering around the drop zone, panic invariably fills the air and overpowers the floral scent of jasmine.
In the 2022/2023 season and as of the time of the international break, there are as many as nine teams sweating over the hanging guillotine which is a unique situation as there would ordinarily be around half this number fighting for their Premier League lives. On account of the current logjam at the bottom of the table, it is almost a certainty that this relegation scrap will go down to the last game of the season which is scheduled for May 28th.
Without a doubt, this will be one of the most enthralling relegation run-ins for decades as nearly half the teams in the league try to escape the swinging trapdoor to the Championship. Those that do fall through, will have their futures cast into doubt as the Premier League's riches are taken away.
While some forward-thinking teams have built the prospect of relegation into their operating models, others will be caught completely off guard. In short, the subsequent turn of unexpected events has the potential to spell disaster. With this in mind, here are the three teams that could stand to lose the most if they end up in the bottom three places of the league table when the final whistle is blown on the season on a late spring day in May.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest’s unlikely promotion to the Premier League in 2022 was down to the inspired man management of head coach Steve Cooper. Essentially, Forest didn’t have the playing personnel to mount a legitimate promotion charge but under Cooper, they miraculously punched well above their weight and eventually kicked the door down to the Premier League after 23 years of trying. The result was that when the club arrived in the top flight, they had a squad that needed improving.
However, Forest didn’t tinker as much as they did completely overhaul their squad. Their recruitment drive was radical and at times, not altogether logical as Forest signed 30 players over two transfer windows. The cost of this spending spree came to over $180 million and in doing so, sent Forest’s wage bill through the roof. In essence, Forest have put the house on staying up but after a few early stunning results, now find themselves in very real danger of going down.
If they do, they would have incurred mammoth expenses that won't be able to be met in the Championship."With the money they've spent there will be a real panic on" 😬💰
AdvertisementHow big a role will that result play in Nottingham Forest's battle to stay up? pic.twitter.com/SLfaZSlF8B
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) March 17, 2023
Leeds United
Unlike Forest, Leeds United have always been alive to the fact that relegation might arrive after their promotion in 2020. Tellingly, with the latest sports betting markets pricing the West Yorkshire club, as of the 28th of March, at just +175 to go down, you can better appreciate why the club has been making allowances for the worst-case scenario behind the scenes.
Ultimately, this has meant that the Whites have been diligent about including relegation clauses in the contracts of all the players they have signed so that in the event of going down, their overheads would do the same. In this sense, Leeds are well placed to absorb the financial shock of relegation but it is the long-term plans for the club that will have to be shelved - namely expanding the capacity of their stadium Elland Road to over 50,000.
This would be a move that allowed Leeds to cash in on their 22,000 season ticket waiting list which would provide enormous financial benefits. Worryingly, relegation would see this plan put on hold indefinitely.
No, Leeds wouldn’t go out of business but they would see the future they've worked tirelessly for go up in smoke.
Everton
Everton are further along with their ground development than Leeds given that the Toffees have a state-of-the-art stadium in Bramley-Moore Dock set to open in time for the 2024/2025 season. It is a development that has been ongoing since the summer of 2021. Crucially, bringing this world-class vision to life has cost the club over $500 million and was meant to usher in a new dawn of European football.🏗️ | The final piece of precast lattice has been installed in the fourth and top level of the west stand. pic.twitter.com/NieuBOCEPT
— Everton Stadium (@EvertonStadium) February 12, 2023
Instead, the club has crashed and is starring down the barrel of relegation. It goes without saying but this stadium, which will be one of the best in the world upon completion, wasn’t designed to have first-division football played in it; it simply isn’t financially viable.
In addition to the mounting overheads that a new stadium brings, Everton also have an eye-watering wage bill that sits at around $200 million and on account of not ever imagining relegation to be a possibility, the club haven’t put provisions in place to reduce costs.
Out of all the teams fighting to stay up, it is certainly the Toffees who will be the most stuck if the unthinkable happens.
Spring may be in the air and filling people with a thrilling sense of possibility but for a handful of Premier League teams, profound consequences lurk on the horizon.
