Former Australia captain Ricky Ponting has forecast a possible draw this week for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, but believes the country he used to play for will ultimately win by a 3-1 series margin.
A five-match Test series between India and Australia will start on 22 November. The India and Australia series will play pink ball in Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney from 22 November to 7 January, 2025.
India won the series in Australia the last two times it was played there; that was in 2018/19 and 2020/21. And Australia haven't won the series since back in 2014-15, when they triumphed 2-0 over home soil.
After India's defeat of New Zealand in the last Test series, Ponting claimed he is confident Australia is likely to dominate in the forthcoming series. He pointed out the absence of top-class fast bowler Mohammed Shami, which would make India an unlikely candidate to obtain 20 wickets and subsequently win a Test down in Australia.
Probably more so now (than before), Ponting said of Australia's chances against India while speaking on an episode of The ICC Review. "(Mohammed) Shami just leaves such a big hole in that bowling group. Back then (in August) there was still some conjecture whether Shami would be fit or not.".
"I think taking 20 wickets in a Test match for India is going to be the biggest challenge. I think they'll bat well enough out here with the current group of batters that they've got," he added.
India managed to retain the title for the last four BGT (home and away) and that includes their historic series in 2020-21, where Rishabh Pant played a memorable knock of 89 not out in Gabba and stole the victory in style as it ended Australia's undefeated run at their fortress that had lasted for 32 years.
While, he believes that the Pat Cummins-led side will win it by 3-1. He thinks they don't lose easily at their own place.
"I think India will win a Test match somewhere through the five Test matches," Ponting predicted. "But I still think now, Australia probably look a bit more settled, a bit more experienced and we know that they're a very hard team to beat at home. So I'll stick with the 3-1," he said.
Speaking about who the top-scorer could be in the series, Ponting said, "Leading run scorer, I'm going to go – Steve Smith or Rishabh Pant."
He felt that with the probable shift of Steve Smith from the top order back to No. 4 increases his chances doing well in the Test series.
"I believe Smith, the fact he's moved back down from opener to No.4 probably makes it feel like he's got more of a point to prove…that maybe he shouldn't have gone up to open in the first place and that No.4 is his spot and where he should have probably been the whole time and where he probably finished his career now," Ponting said.
However, he wouldn't count out the chances of Pant taking Smith all the way to the number one spot. "And with Rishabh back in the side and probably coming into bat in the middle order when the ball's probably lost a bit of its shine and a bit of its hardness and the form that he's in, I'll go for him as one of the leading run scorers as well," he added.
Between the bowlers, Ponting preferred experience seamer Josh Hazlewood to take wickets at the top.
"I think Hazlewood out of the Australian quicks, is right at the moment, is probably at the peak of his powers more than the other guys. So I'll go with him for the leading wicket-taker," Ponting concluded.
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