Amid heated electioneering for the upcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand, a leading pollster has forecasted a thumping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance in the tribal state and a crushing defeat for the INDIA Bloc alliance.
Matrize Opinion poll has predicted a thumping win for BJP-led NDA and thinks it to be winning anywhere between 45-50 seats. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA bloc is likely to dip down to 18-25 seats, while Others including Independents are unlikely to impact this election to any large extent. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the JMM-led alliance won 47 seats while the NDA received 25 seats.
Vote share-wise, the NDA is seen doubling the numbers of the INDIA Bloc. The Matrize survey reveals the BJP-led alliance is going to get a vote share of over 53 per cent; that is, both the JMM-Congress and the RJD alliance are going to be limited to just 28 per cent vote share.
The electoral gain for BJP isn't specific to some region but is state-wide. Notably, the Matrize Opinion poll is indicating good numbers are going to BJP and its allies in all five of these regions: Santhal Pargana, North Chhotanagpur, Kolhan, South Chotanagpur, and Palamu.
With Kolhan's Champai Soren and the Kolhan Tiger's eleventh-hour switchover to BJP, JMM would appear to be badly hurt. The survey predicts a rout of sorts for JMM and its allies in the Kolhan region, that would account for about 14 constituencies.
Vote Share
BJP is expected to be firmly ahead of the INDIA Bloc. In the Kolhan region, BJP alone is expected to garner more than 42 per cent of votes while fetching over 47 per cent vote share in the Palamu region.
Matrize Survey has topped Babulal Marandi for the most popular face for Jharkhand Chief Minister.
When questioned about which face is most popular for Jharkhand Chief Minister, about 44 per cent respondents agreed with Babulal Marandi and 30 per cent said they wanted to see Hemant Soren as the next Chief Minister.
Matrize polling agency conducted this survey between October 15 and November 9.
"In Opinion polls carry a margin of error of + and – 3 per cent," it said in a statement.
The agency has collected people's views on the elections through a sample of 63,842 individuals, out of whom more than 30,000 and 21,000 consist of men and women, respectively, while about 11,000 respondents are 'young voters.'
Interestingly, Jharkhand will vote in two phases, with 43 constituencies going to polls on November 13 and 38 constituencies on November 20. The counting of votes will be held on November 23.
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