Hemant Soren's JMM-led alliance was poised to retain Jharkhand as it was ahead in at least 56 seats in the 81-member state assembly, said data on Saturday afternoon, the Election Commission.
The BJP-led NDA, though confident of its prospects in the state following aggressive campaigning, was far behind its expectations - it was leading in just 23 seats.
The BJP's election plank was driving out "infiltrators" from the Santhal Parganas region, but it seemed to have fallen flat in front of the 'Adivasi' card played by the JMM, which too sought sympathy over the arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren.
Also, bickering within the BJP over giving nominations to turncoats seemed to have cost the party.
The latest EC figures showed the JMM in the lead in 33 of the 43 seats it contested, the Congress ahead in 16 out of the 30 seats it fielded candidates for, the RJD pulling a surprise by being ahead in five of the six seats it fought, and the CPI(ML) Liberation ahead in two of the four seats it fought.
The ruling coalition saw friendly fights in some of the seats.
The BJP is leading in 21 of the 68 seats it had contested, while the LJP (Ram Vilas) was leading in the lone seat it fought, and the JD(U) was ahead in one of the two seats it contested. The AJSU Party had been virtually wiped out with its candidates, including chief Sudesh Mahto, trailing in all 10 seats it contested.
The majority mark in the assembly is 41.
The chief minister was leading in the Barhait seat by 20,469 votes after 12 rounds of counting. His wife Kalpana Soren, credited with reviving the JMM after the arrest of her husband, was leading by 1,612 votes in the Gandey seat after 14 rounds.
State BJP president Babulal Marandi was ahead by 16,691 votes in the Dhanwar seat, former CM Champai Soren was leading by 28,905 votes in Seraikela, and Leader of Opposition Amar Kumar Bauri was trailing by 33,426 votes in Chandankiyari.
Congress minister Banna Gupta was lagging the JDU's Saryu Roy in Jamshedpur West by 21,721 votes. In Ranchi, CP Singh of BJP was ahead of JMM's Rajya Sabha MP Mahua Majhi with a lead of 23,308 votes.
A total of 1,211 candidates were in the fray during the elections.
The counting of votes is most probably going to be over by 4 pm," Chief Electoral Officer K Ravi Kumar said.
Elections recorded 67.74 per cent turnout, the highest since the formation of the state in 2000.
The polling was held in two phases -- 43 seats on November 13, and 38 seats on November 20.
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