The recent exit of some of the top leaders from the JD-U in Bihar has triggered perceptions that the Nitish Kumar-led party is the 'achilles heel' in Mahagathbandhan.
The Nitish-led state cabinet suffered the latest jolt on Tuesday when Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) leader Santosh Kumar Suman, son of former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, tendered resignation from the cabinet. Suman was SC/ST minister in the Nitish's government.
"I am resigning from the cabinet but not withdrawing support from the Mahagathbandhan government. We (HAM) are still part of the Mahagathbandhan government. JDU pressured us to merge the party, to which we have not agreed. Hence, I resigned. The opposition parties are going to hold a mega meeting in Patna but they have not invited us. They are not recognising our party. So what is the point of staying here," Suman said after his resignation.
Earlier, some top leaders like R.C.P. Singh and Upendra Kushwaha left the JD-U.
Bihar seat arithmetics
In 2020 Assembly election, the HAM was part of the NDA.
At that time, there was a seat sharing arrangement between the JD-U and the BJP. The JD-U was allotted 122 seats while the BJP got 121 seats.
HAM got seven seats from JD-U's quota, while Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got 11 seats from BJP's quota.
In 2020, HAM and VIP managed to win four seats each, while the JD-U and the BJP won 43 and 74 seats respectively, and formed the government in the state.
However, in August 2022, Nitish Kumar left the NDA and formed the government in alliance with the Mahagathbandhan.
Currently, the JDU has 45 seats - two seats up from it 2020 tally - after induction LJP MLA Raj Kumar in the party and winning the by-poll from Tarapur constituency under Munger district.
Besides the JD-U, the Mahagathbandhan comprises 79 MLAs of the RJD, 19 of Congress, CPI-ML (12), CPI (2), CPI-M (2) and an independent MLA. So, the total strength of Nitish-led government is 164 (four HAM MLAs).
Opposition BJP has 78 MLAs. AIMIM has one MLA.
If HAM withdraws its support from Mahagathbandhan, it would not affect the Nitish government much as it will still have 160 MLAs, which is well beyond the magical figure of 122.
Jitan Ram Manjhi belongs to Mahadalit (Mushar) community which has a sizable vote bank of around five per cent in the state. If Manjhi joins hands with the NDA, it would be a big jolt to Nitish Kumar.
Upendra Kushwaha has also formed the new political party Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD). He is a prominent Kushwaha community leader. Both Upendra Kushwaha and R.C.P. Singh are in touch with BJP.
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