An exclusive opinion poll conducted by CVoter for ABP News provides insights into the upcoming Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, suggesting that the Congress holds a small but significant advantage over the BJP.
Interestingly, this edge for the Congress appears to be more due to voter "fatigue" with the BJP rather than strong anti-incumbency sentiments against the government.
Another contributing factor to the Congress's edge is the induction of Jyotiraditya Scindia and his supporters into the BJP in March 2020, which does not seem to have shifted the voter preference back towards the BJP in the Chambal-Gwalior region.
According to the CVoter survey, the Congress is projected to secure a vote share of 44.3 percent in the current polls, up from 40.9 percent in the 2018 Assembly elections. The BJP's vote share is also projected to increase, from 41 percent in 2018 to 42.1 percent in the current elections.
The BSP, which had once held a substantial presence in certain areas of the state bordering Uttar Pradesh, is experiencing a decline in its support base, with a projected vote share dropping from 5 percent in 2018 to 2.2 percent this time.
According to the survey, the Congress is projected to win between 118 to 130 seats in the current elections, as compared to the 114 seats it won in 2018. The majority mark in the 230-member Assembly is 116.
On the other hand, the BJP is projected to win between 99 to 111 seats in the current elections. In 2018, the BJP had won 109 seats, leading to the formation of a Congress government with Kamal Nath as Chief Minister.
However, a revolt led by Jyotiraditya Scindia and more than two other MLAs in March 2020 resulted in the fall of the Congress government, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned as the Chief Minister of the state.
The survey, conducted by CVoter, interviewed a total of 28,223 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3 percent.
(With Agency Inputs)