Though the BJP in Uttar Pradesh has suffered a crushing defeat in the Ghosi Assembly by-election, political experts believe that the poll result is beneficial for the BJP in many aspects.
It is being said that National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies -- Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), NISHAD Party and Apna Dal (S) -- failed to deliver much in the by-election and before the 2024 elections, the BJP has tested the "actual strength" of its allies.
Political experts say that the by-election of Ghosi before the Lok Sabha was the first test of the strength of the NDA and INDIA (Opposition alliance). This gave the BJP an opportunity to understand the reliability of its allies.
A senior BJP leader says that since the formation of the BJP-led government in Uttar Pradesh, the party has not achieved much success in the by-elections. "If we look at the 2018 Gorakhpur by-election, SP's Praveen Nishad (now in BJP) had won the election. Similarly, Nagendra Patel won the election in Phulpur and Tabassum in Kairana. However in the 2019 Lok Sabha, the BJP had won these three seats with a very good number of votes," he elaborates.
"Similarly in 2022, BJP lost from Mainpuri and Khatauli. If seen, the track of by-elections was not very good for BJP but it compensates for it in the main elections. The figures are indicating so," the BJP leader adds.
BJP has formed an alliance with many strong regional parties in Uttar Pradesh. Be it Om Prakash Rajbhar (SBSP), Sanjay Nishad (NISHAD Party) and Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal-S), all of them are also considered to have support bases in their respective castes.
Rajbhar and Nishad have MLAs while Anupriya has both MP and MLA. BJP, considering the hold of these 'satraps', forged an alliance with them. However, after the Ghosi by-poll defeat, these allies will not be in a position to bargain with the BJP on seat-sharing for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Senior political analyst P.N. Dwivedi says that in the Ghosi by-election, the strength of BJP's allies was tested and they failed. Rajbhar, who recently joined NDA, could not bring in the votes of his community. Now his stature and bargaining power in NDA will also reduce.
Similarly, Sanjay Nishad continuously camped in Ghosi but he too could not get success. More or less, the same was the condition of the Apna Dal (S) party. Now these people will not be able to do political bargaining, Dwivedi adds.
Another analyst Virendra Singh Rawat says that the BJP also not assessed its allies in the Ghosi by-elections, but has also reduced their bargaining power. Also, the doubts of those who kept raising questions on EVMs' credibility have also been cleared. Therefore, the BJP did not suffer any significant loss because there is still sufficient time left for the Lok Sabha elections.
Samajwadi Party's Charthawal MLA Pankaj Malik says that the people of Ghosi have defeated the BJP due to the "anti-people policies of the government".
"Employment, health and agriculture, everything has deteriorated under the BJP government. The public has given the mandate. People have replied to bigoted people like Rajbhar. There can be no comparison between Rajbhar and Akhilesh Yadav. The public has given him (Rajbhar) the answer," Malik adds.
BJP state spokesperson Harishchandra Srivastava says that it is not right to compare the Assembly by-elections with the Lok Sabha polls. "Ghosi's result is a matter of concern for us. It is being reviewed. As far as allies are concerned, our leadership will review it."
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