The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on course to further consolidate its position in the Rajya Sabha, with the ruling coalition expected to gain additional strength ahead of the politically significant Monsoon Session of Parliament, during which the Centre is likely to introduce major legislative proposals, including bills on delimitation, women's reservation and possibly simultaneous elections.
The immediate increase in numbers is expected to come from West Bengal, where the Bharatiya Janata Party is set to secure all three Rajya Sabha by-elections scheduled for July 24. The vacancies arose after three former Trinamool Congress MPs resigned from the Upper House and subsequently joined the BJP. Following the BJP's rise to power in West Bengal, the party now has sufficient strength in the state Assembly to win all three seats without facing any significant opposition.
With the addition of the three members, the BJP's strength in the Rajya Sabha will increase to 117, the highest in the party's history. The NDA's combined tally in the Upper House will correspondingly rise to 152.
That would leave the BJP just six seats short of the 123 required for a simple majority in the Rajya Sabha based on its current effective strength.
The last occasion on which a single political party commanded a majority in the Upper House was in 1986, when the Congress, led by then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, held the necessary numbers.
Although the BJP will still fall short of an outright majority on its own, the NDA's strength of 152 significantly enhances the ruling alliance's ability to pass ordinary legislation.
The bigger challenge, however, remains constitutional amendments.
Such legislation requires the backing of at least two-thirds of the members present and voting. If the Rajya Sabha votes at its full effective strength, the two-thirds mark stands at 166 members.
The government is expected to bring forward several politically significant constitutional measures in the coming months, including proposals related to delimitation and the implementation of women's reservation.
Despite being below the two-thirds threshold on paper, the NDA could improve its prospects through issue-based support or abstentions from regional parties during voting.
Among the parties and members considered potential supporters are the YSR Congress Party (4 MPs), which is expected to support the government, including on a possible Delimitation Bill; the DMK (8 MPs), which may either vote in favour or abstain; the Biju Janata Dal (5 MPs), which could support the legislation or abstain given its long-standing support for women's reservation; Independent MP Parimal Nathwani, who is expected to back the NDA; and one NCP (SP) MP, who is also likely to support the proposed legislation.
Such support, along with strategic abstentions, could reduce the effective majority required during voting and strengthen the government's chances of securing the passage of key constitutional amendments.
The Rajya Sabha has a maximum sanctioned strength of 250 members, including 12 nominated by the President of India. The remaining members are elected by the elected members of state legislative assemblies and the electoral colleges of Union Territories.
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