Indian economy will clock an average growth of 6.7 per cent between fiscal 2025 and 2031 and touch the $7 trillion mark as far as the report of rating agency CRISIL goes.
It would almost be similar to the 6.6 per cent witnessed in the pre-pandemic decade driven by the capex push and the associated surge in productivity.
According to the report, India's Gross Domestic Product growth is slated to be at 6.8 per cent during the current financial year, whereas high interest rates and stricter lending norms would continue to weigh on urban demand.
According to the ET-Crisil India Progress Report, "a somewhat lower fiscal impulse to growth (as the Central government pursues fiscal consolidation) should also weigh on growth.".
As inflation based on the consumer price index-eased to 4.5 per cent on average in 2024-25 from 5.4 per cent recorded in the previous year, mainly due to moderation in food inflation, it cited weather conditions and geopolitical uncertainties as the major risks to its growth and inflation forecasts for that period.
"Although kharif sowing is higher this year, the impact of excess and unseasonal rains needs to be ascertained. An adverse weather event through the rest of this fiscal remains a constant risk to food inflation and agriculture income," the report states.
The report further says that "any further escalation in geopolitical tensions could constrain supply chains, disturb trade and push up oil prices, impacting inflation and sending input costs soaring."
According to a report, India's current account deficit will remain within the safe zone, driven by strong services export and healthy remittance inflows though it will edge up to 1 per cent of GDP in 2024-25, against 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2023-24.
Meanwhile, the latest data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry show India's merchandise exports rose a robust 17.25 pc to USD 39.20 bn during October this year, as against USD 33.43 bn during the same month last year.
The double-digit growth in exports against the slowdown in global trade has been powered by engineering goods, electronic goods, organic and inorganic chemicals, and textiles, which point to ever-increasing strength of India's manufacturing sector.
Total exports of merchandise and services combined for October 2024 are estimated to be USD 73.21 billion with an increase of 19.08 percent, against the same month last year. Total imports of merchandise and services for October 2024 is estimated at USD 83.33 Billion, reflecting a growth of 7.77 per cent against the same month last year.
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