Pharma giants Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, and GSK are expected to collectively generate 62 per cent of total infectious disease drug sales between 2023 and 2029, according to a report on Wednesday.
The report by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, showed that the infectious diseases market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7 per cent between 2023 and 2029 to reach an impressive $150 billion in annual sales in 2029.
Despite a 63.8 per cent decline in forecast sales for Covid-19 drugs in 2023, infectious disease drug sales are expected to maintain momentum going into the future. This can be attributed to the increasing demand for HIV drugs and continued high sales of Covid therapeutics.
“Pfizer’s annual sales are forecast to decline by 9.2 per cent from 2023 to 2029 due to easing pandemic pressures and the relaxation of government Covid-19 vaccination programmes,” said Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, in a statement.
However, despite this, Pfizer is expected to maintain its dominant position in the infectious diseases market, because of the continued strong sales in its Covid portfolio led by Comirnaty and Paxlovid.
This is due to strategic price hikes in 2023 for the US market and persisting Covid incidences in emerging economies.
As a result, Comirnaty and Paxlovid are projected to achieve an astounding $122 billion in sales between 2023 to 2029.
Gilead Sciences is set to experience steady infectious disease sales growth of 12.4 per cent from 2023 to 2029.
At the heart of its success lies Biktarvy -- a blockbuster small molecule drug indicated for the treatment of HIV. Since its initial approval in 2017, Biktarvy has consistently demonstrated remarkable efficacy and safety data. With its established track record, Biktarvy is forecast to become the best-selling drug in the infectious diseases segment, forecast to generate an estimated $92 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029.
Meanwhile, GSK stands strong with two blockbuster drugs: Shingrix and Dovato.
Shingrix is a vaccine first approved in 2017 by the US FDA for the prevention of Shingles. Since then, Shingrix has gained momentum with subsequent approvals in 20 countries with a recent approval in Japan in June 2023.
Globally, the drug is expected to generate total sales of $41 bn between 2023 to 2029.
On the other hand, Dovato is a small molecule drug indicated for the treatment of HIV.
Since its first approval in 2018 in the US, it has emerged as a reliable choice in the market, with subsequent approvals in the EU, Japan, and China. The drug is forecast to generate $20 billion in sales between 2023 to 2029.
“Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, and GSK are the three major companies driving growth in the infectious disease market. With their innovative products, these three industry leaders are well-positioned to capitalise on the expanding opportunities in the infectious diseases market,” Marcaida said.