BUSINESS
Rising commodity prices, FII outflows to keep rupee subdued
High commodity prices as well as outflow of foreign funds from equity markets combined with the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to keep the Indian rupee subdued in the short to medium term. The trend is expected to widen India's current account deficit to over $20 billion in Q3FY22 from $9.6 billion in Q2FY22. At present, the crisis has led to a global spike in international prices of crude oil, natural gas, coal, nickel, copper, aluminium, titanium and palladium. Moreover, India is a major importer of these precious as well as industrial commodities.
The birth of a new monetary world order as Russia reels under sanctions
As US President Joe Biden unveiled new sanctions on Friday against Russia, he made it clear that the totality of the sanctions and export controls is "crushing the Russian economy". Credit rating agencies have downgraded Russia to 'junk' status. The list of businesses and international corporations leaving Russia is growing by the day, Biden said while listing the stark consequences for Russia and its economy that have unfolded since the Ukraine war.
First Covid and now Ukraine, global markets reel under blow after blow
The only positive consequence of a continuing conflict in Ukraine from a market standpoint is that the longer it goes the more likely it is to temper the recently conceived inflation fighting zeal of G7 central banks, even though the war itself is adding to the inflationary pressures, says Christopher Wood, analyst at Jefferies. In his Greed and Fear commentary, Wood wrote that this political reality is already clear in the case of the ECB which is why the euro has weakened by 3 per cent against the US dollar since the Russian invasion began.
Sunflower oil shortage boon for palm oil producers, bane for consumers
Shortage of sunflower oil amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has sent crude palm oil prices through the roof. The geo-political worries in the Black Sea region has a significant bearing on sunflower seed and its oil supply from the region, as both countries involved in the war are major sources for the oilseed. India is a major importer of crude palm oil, as the country meets more than two-third of its edible oil needs through imports, of which palm oil accounts for more than 60 per cent.
With crude hovering around $95-$130, fuel price hike inevitable
Continued hostilities between Russia and Ukraine as well as rising demand is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-$125 per barrel in the short to medium term. On last Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil price stood at over $112 per barrel. Just a few days ago, Brent rose to a 14-year high and crossed the $130 per barrel-mark. It neared the $140 per barrel level. Lately, crude oil prices have surged by more than 20 per cent on fears of tight supplies. Currently, Russia is one of the largest producers of crude oil in the world.
Non-ferrous metals are on a high, mayhem in markets to continue
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis is expected to keep non-ferrous metal prices high in the near future. The crisis has triggered shortages of these industrial metals which in turn have led to massive spike in their prices. Till now, international prices of aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, titanium and zinc have increased exponentially. At present, aluminium is trading at Rs 284 per kg. The price had risen to Rs 320 per kg but retreated thereafter.
Commodity market shock to trigger all-round price rise
The rise in the cost of commodities led by the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to trigger an inflationary trend in India. The blow is expected to push up prices of everything from food items to manufactured goods. Besides, the trend might force the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee to raise key lending rates, thereby hitting automobile and housing sectors. India's main inflation gauge -- Consumer Price Index (CPI) -- which denotes retail inflation, has crossed the RBI's target range in January.
Paytm CEO arrested, later released on bail for rash driving
Paytm CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma was arrested by the Delhi Police for allegedly ramming into a senior police official's car in February and later was released on bail, a senior official confirmed the incident on Sunday. Delhi Police Spokesperson Suman Nalwa told that the incident took place on February 22 in south Delhi' Malviya Nagar area.
Airbnb invests in new tech hub in Bengaluru
Online vacation rental company Airbnb on Saturday announced fresh investment through the impending opening of a new technology hub here in Bengaluru. Airbnb's Bengaluru technology hub will aim to create local, skilled jobs, with plans for the centre to cater to a few hundred people in the initial phases, followed by an expanded footprint in the future.
Inflationary Woes: High fuel cost to raise cement prices
Growth of real estate as well as infrastructure sectors is expected to take a hit, as prices of cement are expected to rise further on the back of high energy costs. Notably, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered a massive spike in crude oil, natural gas, and coal prices. The BE Capex is intended for infra creation, however, the rising cost might make it insufficient for all the planned projects.
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