The upcoming Union Budget will be tracked for announcements in self-liquidating temporary personal job/income supporting measures to boost private consumption in the immediate future.
Some measures to support the rural economy, amid its weakening and the impending state elections, and any measures to revive the Residential Real Estate sector would be welcome, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.
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Following a robust 30 percent growth in FY22E, total receipts are expected to grow 13.4 percent YoY in FY23E, assuming a gross tax buoyancy of 1.1x, similar to that in the pre-Covid period. If total spending rises by 9 percent in FY23E, the gross fiscal deficit of the Centre would be Rs 15.4 trillion, or 6 percent of GDP, the report said.
The Capex target for FY23 will be based on how well the same was achieved in FY22. If the FY22 (revised) target is met, the Capex growth target for FY23E could be 10 percent or 2.6 percent of GDP. In contrast, if there is a shortfall of Rs 800 billion in FY22E, as per our expectations, the FY23E Capex growth target could be 20 percent.
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In any case, as noted earlier, the Center's Capex is 7 percent of total investments in the country, reflecting its limited role in reviving the investment cycle in the economy.
