India's merchandise export to the United States grew strongly by 16.93% in May to USD 8.83 billion, while imports from the US fell by 5.76% to USD 3.62 billion, as per data put out by the Commerce Ministry.
Exports to the US in the first two months of FY25 (April–May) were up 21.78% at USD 17.25 billion, with imports also growing 25.8% at USD 8.87 billion.
On whether the American tariffs had affected Indian exports, especially steel, aluminium, and auto parts, Commerce Department Special Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India's exposure in these fields is still relatively low. "We do not export a lot of steel and aluminium to the US," he clarified. On the auto component side, Agrawal said duties are uniformly imposed on all nations, so the impact has been negligible till now. "We have not seen a big dent," he added, although he warned that extended tariffs would impact competitiveness if others are exempted. The US currently imposes 25% tariffs on these product groups.
The US became India's second-largest trading partner during April-May.
India's commerce with China also witnessed significant movement. Exports to China increased 25% in May to USD 1.64 billion and by 18.75% in April-May to USD 3.04 billion. Imports from China in May were USD 10.31 billion, an increase of 21.16%, while total imports during the April-May period increased 24.23% to USD 20.22 billion.
Other than China and the US, some other countries had a positive Indian export growth in May, with Singapore, Germany, Australia, Belgium, South Korea, and Russia. Outbound shipments to some other countries like the UAE, the Netherlands, the UK, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Italy, France, Malaysia, and Brazil declined.
On the import front, India had lower imports from Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Qatar in May. Imports were higher from the UAE, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Germany.
Observing these trade patterns, think tank GTRI (Global Trade Research Initiative) founder Ajay Srivastava noted the role played by the current US-China trade tensions in international business. As per Srivastava, figures released by China Customs on June 10 and India's Commerce Ministry on June 16 indicated that Chinese exports to the US had declined while there was a shift to other markets such as India, the EU, and ASEAN.
"India's import surge of electronics and machinery, largely from China, and accelerating exports to the US indicate that global supply chains are rapidly reconfiguring," Srivastava said. But he warned that this changing trade environment poses risks for India in the backdrop of regional conflicts and rising global protectionism.
According to GTRI, China's decreased exports to the US have been offset partly by stronger trade with other allies: EU imports from China increased 12% to USD 49.5 billion, ASEAN by 15% to USD 58.4 billion, and India by 12.4% to USD 11.13 billion.
Significantly, two industries—electronics and machinery—stood out for their growth in imports to India. Imports of electronics increased 27.5% to USD 9.1 billion, and machinery and computer imports went up 22% to USD 5 billion. Srivastava further explained that most of this increase is attributed to China, with India's total imports from China and Hong Kong jumping 22.4%, from USD 9.8 billion to USD 12 billion.
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