India could expect to receive close to $24 billion in foreign inflows over a 10-month period starting June next year, said Sandip Raichura, CEO, Retail Broking and Distribution, and Director, Prabhudas Lilladher.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s decision to add Indian government bonds to its benchmark emerging-market index is a highly anticipated event that carries significant implications for the nation's debt market. With India receiving a 10% allocation in the $240 billion index, this move has the potential to attract billions of foreign inflows, he said.
India could expect to receive close to $24 billion in foreign inflows over a 10-month period starting from June 24. In fact, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are already entering the Indian fixed income market in anticipation of this inclusion. This inclusion is considered a major positive, as it will absorb more than 15% of the net supply of Government Securities (GSEC) for FY 25, he added.
Furthermore, it is expected to reset historical spreads by 20-25 basis points downwards, resulting in a lower capital cost of borrowing for India.
Additionally, the increase in forex reserves will contribute to an improved external fundamental situation for the country.”
JP Morgan global bond indices account for US$ 213 billion worth of investments by global investors, Edelweiss Mutual Fund said in a note.
A 10 per cent weight for IGB should attract US$ 21 billion (Rs 1.7 trillion) worth of investments in IGB by March 31, 2025 assuming investors have zero weight as of now and would like to be index neutral.
Furthermore, index inclusion by JP Morgan may also nudge the other EM index providers like Bloomberg, FTSE, etc. This will result in additional inflows in the economy, the note said.