The bull run in the bullion market which peaked at the height of the pandemic last year has come to a halt as gold futures have declined around 20 per cent from the record highs.
The fall in gold prices has taken place amid hopes of economic recovery post the reopening of business activities along with vaccination drives across the globe. The recent decline comes largely on the back of high yields in US bonds.
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have declined in eight of the past nine trading sessions, and have reached the 10-month low levels.
The April contract of gold futures on the MCX was at Rs 44,458 per 10 gram, lower by Rs 83 or 0.19 per cent from its previous close. It is Rs 11,742 lower than the record high of Rs 56,200 reached in August last year.
Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO of Millwood Kane International, an investment consulting firm said: "After having a dream run in 2020, the yellow metal has been falling for the past few months losing more than 20 per cent in value from the highs witnessed in August 2020."
He noted that the fall in gold prices in the domestic market is in line with the international market prices post comments of the US Fed Chairman on inflation and bond yield.
"Comex gold prices fell due to the rising treasury yields that make holding gold more expensive, the strengthening of the dollar also makes gold buying expensive. Heavy outflows from Gold ETFs are also one of the reasons for the softness in gold prices," he said.
Analysts expect gold prices to remain sideways in the short-term as vaccination drive across the globe picks up the pace which will lead to full normalcy in economic activities.
"The expectation of a rise in inflation due to excess liquidity globally may help gold prices in the medium to long-term," Bhatt said.
Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC Securities noted that gold prices extended downside on Friday with rally in US treasury yields and fall in equity indices after US FED Chairman signalled upward push in inflation.
"The 10 year US treasury yields rose to 1.60 per cent while dollar index was trading up by 0.30 per cent by noon session. The investors and traders switched to dollar as the best alternative of gold," he said.
For the April contract of MCX Gold support lies at Rs 44,000 and resistance lies at Rs 44,500, Patel said.