It is still unclear whether there will be a general election in July for the UK, as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has ruled out saying never. Rumours have followed from the disappointing set of local election results for the Conservative Party, with speculation immediately following.
Over the last week, this has been interpreted by many observers as giving the signal that the national poll would be in October or November, but the ambiguity leaves July open, too. After yet another disappointing set of results in the May 2 mayoral and council elections, challenges to Sunak's leadership or earlier consideration of an election date to resolve internal party divisions will surely follow.
The leaving of Dan Poulter, the ex-Conservative health minister, to Labour last week has further shaken the Tory MPs and added to the feeling of strain around the Prime Minister. Leaving the Conservatives with no more than ten percent of parliamentary health obligations, Poulter said the NHS had been neglected by the government, which highlights the more-than-awkward situation that the Conservatives face.
Sunak, in an interview before Poulter left, spoke again of the elusive timing of the election, refusing to rule out July. In his comments, he said it was his responsibility to run the country and to deliver on the key issues, such as illegal migration and investing in defense.
Speculation is already whetting that the Conservatives will have a difficult election, with predictions of heavy losses in council seats and a hard battle for regional mayors. Against the backdrop of such predictions, there are statements that a vote of no confidence will be launched against the Prime Minister. While Downing Street loses no time in knocking down such speculation, rumours of an early election announcement to preempt dissent within the party are rumoured to be under way.
Sunak has tried to bolster his leadership with policy announcements, such as legislation on Rwanda asylum and commitments to defence spending targets. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has appealed to colleagues to back Sunak and not rock the boat any further by pushing for a leadership challenge at this stage.
Yet a poll also seems to show that disappointed voters who had backed the Conservatives before may be more likely to go back to the party under a new leader, which adds another dimension to the ongoing political drama within the Conservative Party.
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