Oil prices

The Wall Street bank now thinks Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, will cost $86 a barrel in December, compared to its previous estimate of $95, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will fetch $81 a barrel, down from $89, CNN reported.

According to the Bank of Baroda report authored by Economist Aditi Gupta, the Indian rupee is most likely to make further gains against the US dollar in the next fortnight with a range of Rs 81.5/$ - 82.5/$. In April this year, the Indian rupee gained 0.4 per cent building on a gain of 0.6 per cent it made in March 2023.

The price of Brent crude oil was trading above $84 a barrel in Asia after jumping by more than $4, or 5 per cent, the BBC reported. The increase came after Saudi Arabia, Iraq and several Gulf states said on Sunday they were cutting output by more than one million barrels a day. Oil prices soared when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Prices of petrol and diesel have not been increased by public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) since April 6, 2022, despite record high international prices, Minister of State for Petroleum Rameswar Teli told the Lok Sabha in a written reply. The three OMCs, namely Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, have booked a combined loss of Rs 18,622 crore between April 2022 and December 2022, it said.

The average price for Iraqi crude oil in January was $75.96 per barrel, the ministry said in a statement, citing statistics from the State Organization for Marketing of Oil, Xinhua news agency reported. About 98.46 million barrels were exported from oil fields in central and southern Iraq via the port of Basra, while more than 2 million barrels from the northern province of Kirkuk via the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, the statement said.

Windfall tax on export of diesel and jet fuel has also been reduced, the order, dated January 16, said. The tax on export of diesel has been brought down to Rs 5 per litre, from Rs 6.5 per litre, while on jet fuel, it has been brought down to Rs 3.5 a litre from Rs 4.5 a litre. The new price regime has come into effect from Tuesday.

The report forecast that global production of liquid fuels will reach an average of 102.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, up from 100 million b/d in 2022, driven by large growth in non-OPEC production, reports Xinhua news agency. However, uncertainty over Russia's oil supply will persist, particularly in early 2023, the report noted, expecting global consumption of liquid fuels will rise from an average of 99.4 million b/d in 2022 to 102.2 million b/d in 2024.

According to Petroleum Ministry sources, petrol prices stood at Rs 81.06 per litre in October 2020, however by October 2022, they had risen only 19.3 per cent to Rs 96.72 per litre. Similarly diesel prices, which were at Rs 70.53 per litre in October 2020, rose by 27.1 per cent to stand at Rs 89.62 per litre.

"It is a pleasant surprise to see the headline CPI inflation print at 5.88 per cent in Nov-22 from 6.77 per cent in Oct-22 since most market participants estimated it to be above 6.0 per cent. This is an eleven-month low figure and is clearly driven by the faster-than-expected decline in food inflation which stood at 5.1 per cent in the previous month," Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer said.

Brent crude added around 1 per cent to above $86 in Asia trading. The move - which could come into force on Monday - raises Western pressure on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. It comes after oil producers' group Opec+ agreed to stick to its policy to reduce production, amid slower global growth and higher interest rates, BBC reported.