Morgan Stanley
Budget augurs well for stocks, says Morgan Stanley
"This Budget probably means the consensus may need to raise earnings estimates - we remain 10 per cent ahead of the consensus EPS on the BSE Sensex. Our overweight sectors are: Financials, Discretionary Consumption and Industrials. We remain underweight on global sectors and defensives, except technology," the report said.
Morgan Stanley raises Asia, emerging markets index targets
Expressing confidence in emerging markets bull cycle, it said that "a new bull cycle is beginning". "We now feel even more confident in a new bull cycle for Asia/EM equities. We raise our base case MSCI EM target a further 10 per cent to 1,100 (12 per upside)... We also upgrade China to overweight, joining our broader North Asia preference," it noted in the report.
Year 2023 will be year of disinflation in Asia: Morgan Stanley
"We expect 2023 to be a year of disinflation. Asia's inflation, which had more of a cost push element, has already peaked in 3Q22. For 90 per cent of the central banks in Asia, inflation will return to target/comfort zone by 3Q23. In contrast, inflation will remain somewhat above target in the US and Euro Area," Morgan Stanley said.
Rural demand in India to rebound: Morgan Stanley
In a research report, Morgan Stanley also said the high-frequency data suggest that overall economic activity has been normalising over the past three months after remaining sluggish in the trailing 12 months. According to the high-frequency data, the improvement has been led by a lower unemployment rate in rural areas, recovering two wheeler sales, increasing growth of credit to the agriculture sector, and early signs of stabilisation in terms of trade, the report said.
US, global economy facing 'very, very serious' mix of headwinds: JP Morgan chief
Dimon pointed to the effects of runaway inflation, sharp interest rate rises and Russia's war in Ukraine, as factors that informed his thinking, The Guardian reported. But he added that the US is "actually still doing well" and consumers were likely to be in better shape compared with the global financial crisis in 2008. Dimon said that the US Federal Reserve "waited too long and did too little" as inflation jumped to a 40-year high over the past 18 months.
Higher US rates, stronger dollar could lead to acceleration of capital outflows from Asia
The strong dollar environment has raised questions about how Asia will be impacted and whether this will precipitate another financial crisis. "We think this is a very different cycle for Asia - very unlike 1997/98 or 2013", Morgan Stanley said.
Though dollar is strong, 2022 is not 1997/98 or 2013: Morgan Stanley
According to Morgan Stanley, currencies across Asia are depreciating because of a stronger dollar environment and not because of any existing imbalances related to the Asia macro situation.Indeed, this is best reflected by the fact that trade weighted exchange rates in the region have been relatively stable to appreciating.
India's industrial production growth less than estimates: Morgan Stanley
On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis, IP contracted by 7.1 per cent month on month (MoM), versus growth of 2.5 per cent in June. According to the report, although growth slowed across the board, mining was the only sector to contract, by 3.3 per cent. Manufacturing activity growth slowed to 3.2 per cent, and electricity production to 2.3 per cent.
India's domestic demand to sustain growth
Early trends for July indicate data holding across sectors with mobility (ex-residential) fairly steady and unemployment levels lower than in the previous month. Credit growth continues to rise -- it has reached its highest level since April 2019.
Morgan Stanley revises India's GDP growth to 7.2% in FY23
In its latest research report, Morgan Stanley said it sees three aspects -- slower trade growth, tighter financial conditions and changes in commodity prices. While there are signs of moderation in exports, Morgan Stanley said the domestic demand will provide a partial offset with the support from government's supply side response and the reopening vibrancy to help the informal sector.
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