Morgan Stanley

In a research report, Morgan Stanley also said the high-frequency data suggest that overall economic activity has been normalising over the past three months after remaining sluggish in the trailing 12 months. According to the high-frequency data, the improvement has been led by a lower unemployment rate in rural areas, recovering two wheeler sales, increasing growth of credit to the agriculture sector, and early signs of stabilisation in terms of trade, the report said.

Dimon pointed to the effects of runaway inflation, sharp interest rate rises and Russia's war in Ukraine, as factors that informed his thinking, The Guardian reported. But he added that the US is "actually still doing well" and consumers were likely to be in better shape compared with the global financial crisis in 2008. Dimon said that the US Federal Reserve "waited too long and did too little" as inflation jumped to a 40-year high over the past 18 months.

The strong dollar environment has raised questions about how Asia will be impacted and whether this will precipitate another financial crisis. "We think this is a very different cycle for Asia - very unlike 1997/98 or 2013", Morgan Stanley said.

According to Morgan Stanley, currencies across Asia are depreciating because of a stronger dollar environment and not because of any existing imbalances related to the Asia macro situation.Indeed, this is best reflected by the fact that trade weighted exchange rates in the region have been relatively stable to appreciating.

On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis, IP contracted by 7.1 per cent month on month (MoM), versus growth of 2.5 per cent in June. According to the report, although growth slowed across the board, mining was the only sector to contract, by 3.3 per cent. Manufacturing activity growth slowed to 3.2 per cent, and electricity production to 2.3 per cent.

Early trends for July indicate data holding across sectors with mobility (ex-residential) fairly steady and unemployment levels lower than in the previous month. Credit growth continues to rise -- it has reached its highest level since April 2019.

In its latest research report, Morgan Stanley said it sees three aspects -- slower trade growth, tighter financial conditions and changes in commodity prices. While there are signs of moderation in exports, Morgan Stanley said the domestic demand will provide a partial offset with the support from government's supply side response and the reopening vibrancy to help the informal sector.

With share owners remaining marginal setters of price with their persistent bid, domestic investors are about to become larger holders of Indian equities than FPIs for the first time since 2010. This shift in holdings persisted for the March quarter 2022, it said. Average sector positions went a tad higher in the latest quarter after multiple quarters of decline.

Titled 'Global Exposure Guide 2021', the report showed that 18.7 per cent of the revenue comes from developed economies and 9.3 per cent from the emerging market economies. It noted that Taiwanese, Saudi Arabian, Hong Kong, Singaporean, South African, and Mexican companies derive more than half of their revenue from foreign markets.

In a research note, Morgan Stanley said that it expects cigarette tax regulations to be benign relative to the 150 per cent increase seen in 2010-19. The tax increases could be similar to the 80 per cent seen in 2001-09, and over the next few years, could echo the 2003-07 period when economic growth was strong and tax increases were reasonable.