Morgan Stanley
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Morgan Stanley Positively Surprised by Interim Budget's Fiscal Deficit Target
The Budget has demonstrated a commitment to macroeconomic stability by achieving a lower-than-anticipated fiscal deficit and government borrowing. This approach is expected to create room for the private sector to drive capital expenditure (capex) growth.
Morgan Stanley Forecasts Sensex to Hit 74K by December 2024
In the Base case, which holds a 50% probability, the projected BSE Sensex target stands at 74,000.
Morgan Stanley Warns 2024 Elections May Disrupt 'Calm' in Indian Stocks
However, Morgan Stanley warns that any electoral outcome that deviates significantly from investors' expectations has the potential to trigger a substantial decline, possibly up to 30%, in India's equity benchmarks, as reported by Bloomberg.
India most preferred emerging market pick: Morgan Stanley
Relative economic/earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. The "DREAM" run of domestic flows continues and multipolar world dynamics are driving both FDI and portfolio flows toward India, Morgan Stanely said.
India seen as major beneficiary as supply chains migrate from China
"We see India, Mexico and Southeast Asia as best positioned for this transition. India and Mexico are two economies that stand to benefit from increasingly local supply chains," Morgan Stanley said in a report. Morgan Stanley economists have written extensively on the economic and industrial benefits that are beginning to accrue in economies where supply chains are migrating.
India to contribute 16% of global GDP: Morgan Stanley
According to Morgan Stanley, India is benefitting from a combination of cyclical and structural tailwinds and is expected to contribute 16 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) over 2023-24. "In recent months, a wide variety of indicators suggest that India's recovery is strong and broad-based, and is well-placed to sustain growth rates of above 6 per cent," the report said.
India's GDP to grow at 6.2% in FY24, RBI to cut rate in Q1 2024: Morgan Stanley
The report also said the inflation in India is likely to be below 5 per cent in the second quarter of calendar year 2024. According to Morgan Stanley, the key for sustained domestic demand is a pickup in capex, which will help create more jobs, thus leading to a virtuous cycle of more jobs-to-higher income-higher savings-higher investment. The headline consumer price index (CPI) print for March was in line with expectations.
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