Indian equities

The country's share of PE-VC investments in Asia-Pacific grew from 15 per cent to 20 per cent from 2021 to 2022, as China tailwinds and India's macro robustness made it a bright spot for investing, amidst decelerating capital flow in the region, according to Bain & Company's "India Private Equity Report 2023" in collaboration with Indian Venture and Alternate Capital Association (IVCA).

At the end of the volatile week, we did see sharp gains on expected lines with our markets gaining on every day of the week, with the best reserved for Friday. BSESENSEX gained 1,510.98 points or 2.55 per cent to close at 60,841.88 points while NIFTY gained 249.70 points or 1.42 per cent to close at 17,854.05 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.24 per cent, 0.41 per cent and 0.52 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 0.45 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 0.86 per cent.

BSESENSEX gained 360.59 points or 0.60 per cent to close at 60,621.77 points while NIFTY gained 71.05 points or 0.40 per cent to close at 18,027.65 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.16 per cent, 0.13 per cent and 0.03 per cent. BSEMIDCAP and BSESMALLCAP both were down, losing 0.66 per cent and 0.79 per cent respectively.

With gains on just two of the three trading sessions, they could do so much and no more. BSESENSEX gained 360.81 points or 0.60 per cent to close at 60,261.18 points. NSENIFTY gained 97.15 points or 0.54 per cent to close at 17,956.60 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.5 per cent, 0.5 per cent and 0.49 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 0.02 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 0.26 per cent.

Last month's SIP contribution was much higher than Rs 11,305.34 crore that was invested in December 2021. "Investors will continue to invest in the India growth story through the mutual fund route over the near future. Investors are looking forward to a growth-oriented budget which should have a positive impact on the markets.

Coming to the week gone by, we saw markets rally and close the last week on a positive note. On the last day however, they gained at open but closed on selling pressure at the end and ended with losses. BSESENSEX gained 995.45 points or 1.66 per cent to close at 60,840.74 points while NIFTY gained 298.50 points or 1.68 per cent to close at 18,105.30 points.

BSESENSEX lost 843.86 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 61,337.81 points while NIFTY lost 227.60 points or 1.23 per cent to close at 18,269 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.32 per cent, 1.28 per cent and 1.15 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 1.37 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 0.14 per cent. All the sectoral indices on BSE lost ground during the week.

This brings us close to the level where the rally must commence again in the next couple of days. If that does not happen, there could be another sharp round of selling which would emerge. This could probably put an end to the expected Santa Claus rally that one is used to seeing in Indian markets. BSESENSEX lost 686.83 points or 1.09 per cent to close at 62,181.67 points while NIFTY lost 199.50 points or 1.07 per cent to close at 18,496.60 points.

If one looks at the performance of stock markets on a calendar basis since 2005, there have been eight instances when markets have gained between 0 and 25 per cent, six instances when they have gained between 26 per cent and 50 per cent, and just one instance when they gained more than 76 per cent.

This explains the absence of celebration among retail investors whose portfolios are oriented towards small caps, says V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. The significant characteristic of the ongoing rally is that it is a mature rally driven by high quality stocks. The earlier rally which took the Nifty from the March 2020 low of 7,511 to 18,604 in October 2021 was a one-way rally driven by liquidity and retail exuberance.