India has witnessed a significant decline in its fertility rate over the years, plummeting from approximately 6.2 in 1950 to slightly under 2 in 2021. A recent study published in The Lancet journal indicates a further projected decrease to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100. This trend aligns with global patterns where the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, with projections of 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100.
Globally, there were approximately 1.29 billion live births in 2021, marking an increase from around 0.93 billion in 1950 but a decline from the peak of 1.42 billion in 2016. In India, live births numbered over 160 million in 1950 and exceeded 220 million in 2021, with a projected decrease to 130 million by 2050.
Despite the worldwide trend towards lower fertility rates, many low-income countries are expected to grapple with high fertility rates throughout the 21st century. Researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators emphasize that regions such as western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa will continue to face significant fertility challenges, leading to a demographic divide.
It is projected that a substantial proportion of global live births will occur in low-income countries, nearly doubling from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100. Moreover, these regions may also confront heightened climate change impacts, including floods, droughts, and extreme heat, exacerbating food and water insecurity and increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality.
The implications of these fertility trends are far-reaching, affecting economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment. As populations age, strains on national health insurance, social security programs, and healthcare infrastructure are anticipated to escalate unless innovative solutions are identified and implemented.
While a decline in global population could alleviate pressure on resources and carbon emissions, increased per capita consumption due to economic growth may counteract these benefits. To address the concentration of live births in high-fertility, low-income regions, the researchers advocate for enhancing women's access to education and contraceptives, recognized as key drivers of fertility.
In sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility declines are expected to be particularly steep, the rapid expansion of education and contraceptive access is crucial. The GBD study, considered the most extensive effort to quantify health loss globally, underscores the urgency of addressing these challenges.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI), emphasizes the profound implications of these findings for India, including issues such as an aging population, labor force shortages, and potential gender imbalances. She advocates for proactive measures encompassing economic policies promoting growth, job creation, and social security reforms to mitigate the impacts of declining fertility rates.
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